NFL conference championships betting, odds, lines: 3 biggest storylines, including impact of Bo Nix’s injury

Conference championship weekend includes three teams that went 14-3 in the regular season and also the Los Angeles Rams, who some consider the best team in the NFL.

Of course, there’s an asterisk. One of those 14-3 teams, the Denver Broncos, had the gut punch of finding out Bo Nix will miss the rest of the playoffs due to a broken bone in his ankle. That changed the playoff landscape, and also the betting odds for the conference championship round.

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Here are three betting storylines for the NFL’s final four, with odds from BetMGM:

How Bo Nix’s injury affected the line

It’s impossible to discuss the AFC championship game without a dive into the Broncos’ quarterback conundrum.

Broncos coach Sean Payton shocked everyone with the announcement that Bo Nix would undergo season-ending surgery, meaning Jarrett Stidham would start the AFC championship game. Stidham will set the record for fewest career starts (four) of any starting quarterback in NFL conference championship game history.

There was a huge adjustment to the line. On lookahead lines for potential matchups last week, the Broncos were a 1.5-point favorite over the Patriots. That moved all the way to Patriots -5.5, but it has come back to Patriots -5 at BetMGM. The Broncos could close as the biggest home underdog in NFL conference championship game history.

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Before the season, 12 oddsmakers broke down the point-spread difference between starting quarterback and backup quarterback for each team to Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes, and the average difference from Nix and Stidham was 3.85 points. The line actually moved 6.5 points, based on that lookahead line, which seems like an overreaction.

Seahawks favored over Rams

The NFC championship game is the third meeting between the Seahawks and Rams this season, which means we have point spread history for two other games.

In the first meeting in Los Angeles, the Rams were 3-point favorites and won but didn’t cover, outlasting Seattle 21-19 when the Seahawks missed a long field goal as time expired. In the second game, the Seahawks were 1.5-point favorites and trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter before coming back to win but not cover in a wild 38-37 win.

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The line this time has moved the Seahawks’ way, even though their win over the Rams was fluky with a historic comeback. Seattle is -2.5 at -120 odds, which means it could move to Seahawks -3 before kickoff. The Seahawks’ rest over the last two weeks, with a bye followed by a blowout win over the 49ers, might factor in. The Rams’ wild-card game came down to the final minute and then the divisional round game at Chicago went to overtime. The Seahawks have also looked impressive in the three games since that comeback over the Rams, while Los Angeles hasn’t played a great game since then.

Both of these teams have been good to bettors. The Seahawks and Rams both went 12-5 against the spread this regular season, in a four-way tie for the best ATS record in the NFL according to Action Network (the Patriots and Jaguars were the others).

NFC likely to be favored in Super Bowl

As has been the case for weeks, the two NFC West teams are atop the Super Bowl odds. No matter which NFC team wins Sunday, they’re very likely to be favored in Super Bowl LX.

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The Broncos’ quarterback situation has also affected the current Super Bowl odds:

Seahawks +150

Rams +220

Patriots +250

Broncos +1300

It is a bit jarring to see Jarrett Stidham at +2000 to win Super Bowl MVP, considering he hasn’t thrown a pass in either of the last two regular seasons and wasn’t on anyone’s radar just a few days ago.