How will Caleb Wilson’s season-ending injury impact his NBA draft stock?

Caleb Wilson is done. The 19-year-old freshman fractured his right thumb and is headed for surgery, which means arguably the most physically gifted freshman in this draft class will not get to experience March Madness. The timing is brutal. Wilson had already broken his left hand in early February and was due back ahead of this weekend’s battle between North Carolina and Duke. Instead, he’ll be watching from the bench.

For the Tar Heels, this obviously is a blow. Wilson went toe-to-toe with potential top-3 pick Cam Boozer in their first matchup. And North Carolina had a +16.3 net rating with Wilson on the floor all season, per CBB Analytics. Without him, their national title hopes are likely over.

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But from a draft standpoint, Wilson had already given NBA teams enough to know exactly what kind of prospect he is.

Wilson led the entire country in dunks at the time of his first broken hand. At 6-foot-10, he has pogo-stick explosiveness, a quick second jump for putback opportunities, and the fluidity to outrace anyone up the floor.

This bounce pops up all over the floor for Wilson. He posted double-doubles against Boozer’s Duke team and Darryn Peterson’s Kansas team — he nearly averaged one on the full year, at 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds. Plus, he tacked on 1.5 steals and 1.4 blocks.

He combines the lateral mobility to guard outside and the length to alter shots inside. It’ll give Wilson positional versatility at the next level to fill different defensive roles depending on what his team needs from him. With those skills, Wilson draws comparisons to Jaren Jackson Jr. or Evan Mobley — two recent Defensive Player of the Year winners.

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But Wilson is fourth on draft boards instead of first because of his jumper. He made only 26.1% of his catch-and-shoot jumpers and 34.6% of his dribble jumpers, per Synergy Sports. His 71.3% from the line isn’t catastrophic, and he’s caught fire in some games like he did against Duke in February and in November against Kansas. But it’d be nice to see some consistency from outside of the paint.

If Wilson ever does figure out his shot, it’ll raise his ceiling to a point he could end up the best player in the class. Because he isn’t just a run-and-dunk athlete. Wilson has a handle that he shows off most in the open floor. Early in the season against Michigan State, he had a play where he picked up a loose ball, drove up past half-court, pulled out a hesitation dribble, then attacked back to his left before elevating for a poster dunk.

Wilson’s playmaking is also an asset. On 2.7 assists per game, he displayed a real feel for the high post, finding cutters and spot-up shooters. At the least, a team will be able to feel confident in his ability to operate out of dribble handoffs as a connective piece.

But without the threat of a jumper, that playmaking skill and those Giannis-like moments on drives are nothing but flashes.

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If he’s not going to make defenders sweat because of a perimeter shot, he’ll definitely need to get stronger. He’s only 215 pounds. He can’t overpower opponents on his drives to the rim. And on defense, NBA bigs will try to bury him until he adds functional strength.

Concerns about Wilson weren’t going away in March. It’ll likely take years for him to gain muscle and figure out his jumper, if he ever does. But now following surgery to his right thumb, lifting weights and taking shots will have to wait until he’s fully recovered.

Executives around the NBA don’t think there’s anything Wilson could have done to surpass Boozer or BYU forward AJ Dybansta on boards — and Peterson will only control his own destiny. But by missing time, he leaves himself vulnerable to being surpassed. Because what’s lost is the tape. Teams will get to watch other prospects prove themselves in March when the competition sharpens and the pressure is on.

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NBA teams won’t get the opportunity to see Wilson on the biggest stage. So the college evaluation is closed after 24 games, two broken hands, and one season that felt like it was just getting started.