Bitcoin (BTC) narrowly missed a major breakout. History says be careful.

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Bitcoin BTC$80,953.28 has pulled back below $81,000 after narrowly missing a test of the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently located near $83,300, on Wednesday. The broader crypto market is also trading in the red, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index losing more than 2% over the past 24 hours, making it the worst performer among major sector indices.

The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as a key barometer of long-term market strength. A sustained move above the level would reinforce the narrative that the bear market ended during the early February dip below $63,000 and that a new bull cycle is underway.

However, there is an important historical parallel worth considering. During previous bear market recoveries, BTC has tested, and at times briefly broken above, the 200-day average before resuming its broader downtrend. Most notably, in late March 2022, BTC climbed above $48,000 and tested the 200-day SMA, only to collapse toward $20,000 by the end of June.

For now, macro and market conditions continue to lean supportive. Sliding oil prices and record highs in gold, alongside steady ETF inflows and improving on-chain dynamics, continue to support the case for further upside. Analysts at Marex pointed to three catalysts that could determine whether BTC extends higher.

“First, whether spot keeps buying into strength, not just buying dips. Second, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, which reduces immediate sell pressure. Third, whether the derivatives market stays constructive without overheating. If those line up, the path to the mid 80s opens fast,” they said.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said BTC’s recent pullback appears more like a pause than a sign of trend exhaustion.

“This pause also coincided with the RSI touching the overbought zone (>70) on daily timeframes. It is worrying that the previous three touches of these levels (in August, October and January) were followed by sharp selloffs. It is quite logical that market participants are taking a breather to assess the situation and gather strength,” he said in an email.

In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has eased to 4.32%, reversing the early-month spike to 4.46% in a potentially positive development for risk assets.

The Bank of Japan continues to intervene in FX markets to support the anti-risk Japanese yen, while several Asian currencies remain under pressure from the recent oil price spike triggered by the Iran war. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures continue to hover near record highs. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

BNY, world’s largest custody bank, expands crypto services in Abu Dhabi (CoinDesk): BNY, which oversees $59 trillion in assets, is working with Finstreet and ADI Foundation to build regulated digital asset infrastructure anchored in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).

Oil prices fall below $100 as U.S.-Iran tensions keep traders focused on Strait of Hormuz risks (CNBC): Oil prices fell Thursday in volatile trading amid renewed tensions between U.S. and Iran. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July fell 1.85% to $99.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June rose 1.85% to $93.21 per barrel.

Iran reviewing US proposal as Trump pressures Tehran for agreement on deal to end war (AP): Iran is reviewing the latest American proposals on ending the war, as Trump threatens with a new wave of bombing unless a deal is reached that includes reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

France moves aircraft carrier to Red Sea with eye on Hormuz mission (Reuters): France deployed its carrier strike ​group to the Red Sea as part of planning for a potential mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin struggling to establish a firm breakout above the upper boundary of the rising channel that has defined its steady recovery from the February lows below $63,000.

Just above the upper boundary sits the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $83,300, a long-term trend indicator many institutional and systematic traders use to gauge whether the broader market trend is bullish or bearish.

Taken together, the top of the channel and the 200-day SMA form a key resistance zone. A decisive break above both levels would strengthen the case that bitcoin’s recovery is evolving into a broader uptrend and could open the door for a move toward the mid-$80,000s.

But repeated failure to clear this area could encourage profit-taking and short-term caution, especially after bitcoin’s strong rebound over the past three months.