Last season, the Florida State Seminoles rocked the country after toppling the Alabama Crimson Tide 31-17, entering the game as heavy underdogs at home to kick off the home-and-home series between the two programs.
FSU is no stranger to having the odds stacked against it over the past 10 years, and their road matchup against Alabama this season is no different.
Alabama Favored by More Than Two Touchdowns
Florida State entered the matchup in 2025 at a near two-touchdown disadvantage, and the stakes have gotten higher this time around. Per DraftKings SportsBook, Alabama is currently favored by 15.5 points.
The last time the two teams met, Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos led the Seminoles with 152 passing yards and 78 rushing yards with a touchdown, snapping the Crimson Tide’s 23-game win streak in season openers.
Florida State’s defense held Alabama’s rushing attack to under 100 yards while FSU punished the ground game with 230 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with touchdown runs from Caziah Holmes, Micahi Danzy, Gavin Sawchuk, and Castellanos.
A Massive Early Test Awaits the Seminoles
Florida State will have an opportunity to build momentum before traveling to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, opening the season against New Mexico State before hosting SMU in its ACC opener.
While the ‘Noles are heavily favored against New Mexico State, they are slight underdogs against the Mustangs at 2.5 points.
Even if the Seminoles enter Week 3 undefeated, they’ll still face one of the toughest environments in college football against a national title contender.
The matchup could serve as an early measuring stick for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s rebuilt roster, and an upset over Alabama would immediately reshape the national conversation surrounding the program after two consecutive losing seasons.
Florida State failing to win a road game over the last two years only adds more weight to the matchup. The last time FSU won a road test was at Ben Hill Griffen Stadium against the Florida Gators during their 2023 ACC Championship run.
The Seminoles aren’t just trying to win games in 2026; they’re trying to change the program’s perception.
A win against Alabama would instantly change how the rest of the country views Norvell’s team and flip the discussion from whether Florida State can return to eligibility to whether it can end the season as an ACC contender.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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