How I Feel About the Team Against Broncos in Week 1

Can anyone say they’re fully confident in the Kansas City Chiefs entering the season? Having to square off against the reigning AFC West champions right out of the gate doesn’t help matters, although it does present a heck of an opportunity to make a statement.

Week 1 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown against the Denver Broncos as Kansas City opens its 2026-27 campaign at home. Following an offseason filled with change, head coach Andy Reid’s team faces a tall order to defend home turf and secure a victory in prime time. How do the hosts compare to the visitors?

Let’s break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 1 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs’ offense vs. Broncos’ defense

This is the clash everyone is excited for (or perhaps terrified of). In a down year for just about everyone, last year’s Chiefs offense had one of the worst rushing attacks in the sport and couldn’t sniff the heights it reached earlier in the Patrick Mahomes era. Down-to-down consistency dropped, situational play eroded and personnel faltered.

In is running back Kenneth Walker, who should benefit from lighter boxes in Kansas City. There are some things the coaching staff can do to maximize his skill set, yet his presence alone should raise both the floor and ceiling of the offense. If there’s one area of the Denver defense to go after, it’s on the ground. According to SumerSports, Vance Joseph’s group was 16th in EPA/rush (-0.05) ceded in 2025.

The outlook for the passing game is much murkier. Although tight end Travis Kelce turned back the clock a bit last season and is hoping to be even better in what might be his final run, there are huge concerns about the receiver room.

Both Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are gifted golden opportunities to stand out against a vaunted Broncos secondary that has players like Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss lurking, but those matchups don’t lean KC’s way. Via NFL Pro, Rice and Worthy averaged a respective 1.1 and 0.5 yards per route run versus Denver a season ago, which fell well short of their year-long marks of 2.3 and 1.4.

The elephant in the room is the left tackle situation. With Josh Simmons sitting this one out due to a back injury, undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is in line to start. There’s scary potential for multiple “welcome to the league” moments against two-time Pro Bowler Nik Bonitto, which does give me some pause, especially with this being Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL and LCL.

Chiefs’ defense vs. Broncos’ offense

It’s ironic that the Chiefs essentially rebuilt their defense this offseason, yet many are more comfortable with Steve Spagnuolo’s side of the ball potentially faring better to start the season. It’s this writer’s take that there could be some growing pains, although a Bo Nix-led offense doesn’t quite evoke the feeling of fear.

Despite throwing the ball a whopping 612 times in year No. 2, Nix threw four fewer touchdowns than in his debut campaign and also mustered just 231.2 yards per game. The Broncos gave him ample chances to rack up volume stats, evidenced by having the seventh-highest pass rate over expected (1.6%, via nfelo), so it wasn’t an opportunity issue. Nix enjoyed a solid year, albeit not a good enough one to cement him as a quarterback who clearly ranks in the top half of starters.

With Nix stuck somewhere in the middle of the pack, there’s a lot resting on the halfback duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. A strong front line with linemen Garrett Bolles, Quinn Meinerz and company paving roads sets the tone for a ground game that landed 16th in EPA/play (-0.04). An improved defensive tackle room, headlined by the addition of Khyiris Tonga, might keep Denver’s run-game efficiency in check.

The X-factor to monitor in Week 1 is wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. An offseason trade pickup from the Miami Dolphins, the speedy wideout is a constant threat to stretch the field and might be precisely what the Broncos were missing. The 2025 Broncos sat 22nd leaguewide with a 7.5-yard average depth of target.

In a sport that revolves around generating explosive plays — particularly in the passing game — Waddle entering the fold is a noteworthy development. First-round corner Mansoor Delane and company need to be on the lookout.

Keep an eye on how (read: whether) the Chiefs’ pass rush makes Nix uncomfortable. With All-Pro tackle Chris Jones bothered by a calf injury and defensive end Ashton Gillotte playing through a ruptured plantar fascia, it’s a less than ideal situation.

How special are the special teams?

It’s well documented that the Chiefs’ special teams unit has underwhelmed in recent years. Coordinator and assistant head coach Dave Toub’s reputation is legitimate, but the results aren’t right now. After kicker Harrison Butker flashed the best and worst of his game and the Brashard Smith-Nikko Remigio return duo left a couple of reasons for optimism in the preseason, the jury is still out.

Former New Orleans Saints head coach Darren Rizzi enters his second year as the Broncos’ STC. For what it’s worth, Denver was 17th in special teams grade from Pro Football Focus in 2025 after being third the year before. Last season, Denver was 29th in average starting field position (own 29.5) and 15th on the opposing side (own 30.4). It also made 87.5% of its field goal tries and every extra point.

The Broncos were right behind the Chiefs in net average punting, good for 41.1 yards.

Chiefs Week 1 confidence meter: 5.3

Flip a coin. That’s where I’m at with this contest.

The Broncos own perhaps the deepest roster in the game and retained a ton of talent from a 14-win team. Head coach Sean Payton has plenty left in the tank and could be engineering a Super Bowl contender if things break right. If the Chiefs are going to remind the football world of who they are, this would be a perfect time and place to do it.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Denver went 2-6 against the spread in road games a season ago, and all Kansas City contests combined to go 13-4 toward the under. Adding that this is an opener between two division rivals would lead one to anticipate a low-scoring, tight-knit affair.

Strap in and get ready for one heck of a roller coaster ride. Things could go either way, to me, putting the confidence meter just over a 5.0. Sometimes, the better-constructed roster doesn’t always prevail. Let’s see if the Reid-Mahomes duo has any more tricks up its sleeve.

Sign up to our free newsletter and follow us on Facebook, X and Instagram for the latest news.