This is not a golden era for starting pitchers.
After all, in a five-year stretch from 2015-19, pitchers tallied at least 270 strikeouts on 10 occasions. Last season, no one reached 230 whiffs. And in that same five-year period, there were 15 times in which a pitcher tallied at least 19 wins, which wasn’t accomplished by any pitcher last year. Similar comparisons can be made in the ratio categories, where last year’s leaders (Chris Sale, 2.38 ERA, Logan Gilbert 0.89 WHIP) produced good marks that wouldn’t have led the league when the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom were in their prime.
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Still, within the current landscape of pitching, someone needs to be the best. And even though there aren’t any hurlers who currently warrant a first-round pick, it’s still essential to identify the men who could make a game-changing fantasy impact this season.
Here are the best candidates (and a few dark horses) to be the No. 1 starter this year.
The Favorites
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (Yahoo ADP: 13.9)
Why he could finish first: Skenes throws harder than any other starter, having averaged 98.8 mph on his fastball. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, he placed first in ERA, fifth in WHIP and third in strikeout rate.
Why he might not: Skenes doesn’t even have a full season of major league experience. His 102 Stuff+ is not impressive when compared to other elite starters. And pitchers who throw this hard have a bad habit of getting injured.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (Yahoo ADP: 16.4)
Why he could finish first: Skubal ranked first or second in 2024 in wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. And his performance was simply an extension of his 2023 success, when he returned from injury to post a 2.80 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and an 11.4 K/9 rate across 15 starts.
Why he might not: Skubal is as safe as they come, but if I wanted to nitpick, I could mention that his 30.3% strikeout rate was only sixth among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He also isn’t backed by an elite offense or a stellar bullpen.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (Yahoo ADP: 23.8)
Why he could finish first: Wheeler is Mr. Consistency, as he ranks among the top four in innings, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP across the past four seasons.
Why he might not: Although he is incredibly consistent, Wheeler has a lower ceiling than most pitchers in this article due to a strikeout rate that is good but not elite. He will also turn 35 in May, which makes him the second-oldest pitcher among this group.
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (Yahoo ADP: 39)
Why he could finish first: Sale is among the best at reaching great heights. He won a Cy Young Award last year, tallied 308 strikeouts in 2017 and posted memorable ratios (2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) in 2018. The southpaw has four seasons with 200+ innings and eight seasons with 200+ whiffs.
Why he might not: Sale will turn 36 shortly after Opening Day. He made just 31 starts from 2021-23 and rivals Jacob deGrom as the biggest injury risk among fantasy aces.
The Dark Horses
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (Yahoo ADP: 39.2)
Why he might finish first: Snell can get as hot as any starter in baseball. In the second half of 2024, he led the majors with 103 strikeouts while posting a 1.45 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. The previous year, Snell won his second Cy Young award after going 14-9 with 234 whiffs and a 2.25 ERA. Signing with the Dodgers was a smart move, as the organization has a high-scoring lineup, effective bullpen and a long history of getting the most out of their pitchers.
Why he might not: Snell has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. He has the worst control skills of anyone in this article and has made 30 starts twice in his nine-year career. The Dodgers have a deep group of starters and will use a six-man rotation at times, which will limit Snell’s innings.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (Yahoo ADP: 39.8)
Why he might finish first: Crochet generates whiffs with the best of them, as his 35.1% strikeout rate led all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year. The Red Sox will take the kid gloves off Crochet, which makes him as likely as anyone to lead the majors in strikeouts. His ratios should also be excellent, as his ERA estimators in 2024 were in the mid-2.00’s.
Why he might not: Prior to 2024, Crochet had 72 relief appearances and zero starts, which raises concerns about his durability and longevity. And although he will be happy to have left baseball’s worst team, his new home park is tough on left-handed hurlers.
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers (Yahoo ADP: 48.6)
Why he might finish first: In his prime, deGrom logged remarkable ratios. His lifetime WHIP is an eye-popping 0.99, and his ERA is 2.52. Justin Verlander showed in 2022 that a veteran hurler can go straight from Tommy John surgery to a heavy workload.
Why he might not: Although it’s exciting to compare him to Verlander, deGrom is not the same type of workhorse. He last threw 100 innings way back in 2019. The right-hander will turn 37 in July and has more downside than anyone else on this list. Still, if we knew that every pitcher in this article was going to make 30 starts, deGrom might be the first starter off the board.
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