La Liga’s title race is swinging toward Barcelona — or at least away from Real Madrid

The tightest title race in European soccer has, for months, been curious and confusing. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid have risen and fallen, jockeying for position in La Liga. They have each occupied the top spot. They entered March with one point separating them. They were, the table seemed to scream, locked in an enthralling three-way battle for supremacy in Spain.

But in reality, the battle has been tipping — away from the defending champs, toward the team that has, on balance, been La Liga’s best since the start of this season.

That team, clearly, is Barcelona.

Barca has been inconsistent and occasionally unlucky. It coughed up an autumn advantage with a horrid run — five points from seven league games — in November and December. But now, it has refound its form, and surged back to the top of the league with Sunday’s 4-0 win over Real Sociedad.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, has been sputtering. Los Blancos have been losing, and moaning about referees, creating distractions for themselves. Their lack of cohesion, coupled with injuries, came to the fore in February, when they won just once in four tries; and again on Saturday, when they were battered and beaten 2-1 by Real Betis.

They have looked fantastic when in full flight, and remain Champions League favorites. But in La Liga, in addition to their structural, tactical shortcomings, there has been an inescapable sense of “been there, done that.”

And their lapses have tossed control of the title race back to their two archrivals. Neither Atlético Madrid nor Barcelona has lost since mid-January. Barca has stormed to six straight victories, by a cumulative margin of 19-2. The sixth, on Sunday, took the Catalan club three points ahead of Real and one point clear of Atlético atop the table.

It also epitomized Barca’s prowess. Although aided by a red card, the attempted shot tally was still eye-popping: Barcelona 30, Sociedad 0. And the red card was a byproduct of some wonderful midfield interplay. The first goal was Lamine Yamal at his best. Yamal, at 17, has already established himself as La Liga’s finest creator. He tortured a defender with air-tight control of the ball, sat him down with a feint, drew a second defender, and unlocked the game.

Barca’s front three — Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha — have thrived under Hansi Flick, the German coach who’s transformed this mismanaged club and haphazard team. Whereas Real Madrid has tried to ride its superstars, Barcelona’s dominance has been systemic.

Lewandowski, who leads the Pichichi (golden boot) charts, has not had an otherworldly year. He and Raphinha have actually underperformed their Expected Goal tallies — meaning they have scored fewer goals than you’d expect the average player to score if given the chances they and their teammates have created.

But still, Barca’s attack has been by far the most prolific in Spain because Yamal, Raphinha and a slick midfield driven by Pedri have created so much — and because they’ve all leaned into Flick’s aggressive, audacious approach to the sport.

Atleti offers quite the contrast. It often does not take initiative. Whereas Barca averages 67% possession, Diego Simeone’s side is only slightly above 50%. The Argentine manager, once a fiery defensive midfielder, has continued to craft teams in his own image.

And it is working. Again. Atleti has conceded just 16 goals in 26 league matches. It beat fourth-place Athletic Bilbao on Saturday, 1-0, in a match that typified its unique greatness. Julián Alvarez came off the bench to score a second-half winner. Conor Gallagher’s stoppage-time slide tackles whipped the home crowd into a frenzy. Simeone pumped his fists to an adoring crowd as he strode back down the tunnel, mission (narrowly) accomplished.

Those three points were Atlético’s 33rd, 34th and 35th procured by a one- or zero-goal margin — out of 56 points total. For most clubs, such a run would seem unsustainable. But for Atleti, it’s the magic of the Metropolitano. It’s been the story of past title challenges. There’s no reason it can’t hold up for another few months and be the story of this one.

Barca, though, has the greater margin for error. It has the coach and the players. It now has a slender lead, and some undeniable momentum. The Catalans, until further notice, are the favorites.