Here’s how and why Brock Purdy might win an NFL MVP award this season

NFL MVP doesn’t necessarily go to the best player. It didn’t last year.

There are certain factors that make predicting NFL MVP easier. It’s very likely going to a quarterback, as it has each of the last 12 years. It will go to a player whose team makes the postseason; only twice has MVP gone to a player from a non-playoff team and it hasn’t happened since 1973. So if you’re really good at predicting who will make the playoffs, you can reasonably cut the field down to 14 players before Week 1 ever kicks off.

Advertisement

Because the award doesn’t necessarily go to the best player, other factors are involved. Voters in all sports like to spread the award around to new winners. Narratives come into play. A good story, especially late in the season, can make the difference.

And long before the season starts, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy checks a lot of those boxes.

Brock Purdy’s odds for MVP

Purdy is not one of the favorites to win MVP at this point in the offseason. His odds to win are 28-to-1 at BetMGM, which ranks him 10th on the list. Lamar Jackson is the favorite at +600 and Josh Allen is right behind him at +650, which is understandable. Those two regularly put up monster numbers for very good teams.

Advertisement

But both have won an MVP. Jackson has won two, and that probably was a factor in him not beating Allen for MVP last season. Maybe someone new will win this season.

Don’t forget that Purdy almost won MVP a couple seasons ago. He seemed to have a slight lead over the field late in the 2023 season when the 49ers were rolling and he was putting up good numbers. But the Ravens came to California for a high profile Week 16 Monday night game late in the season, Jackson outplayed Purdy in a major way, Baltimore blew out San Francisco and that was the end of the MVP race. But Purdy was in position to win once already and it wasn’t long ago.

There’s a path for Purdy to get back in that position late this season.

49ers have an easy schedule

The first obstacle for Purdy, oddly enough, might be the 49ers making the playoffs. San Francisco has been one of the best teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, but it missed the playoffs last season. The 49ers went 6-11. However, oddsmakers aren’t worried about the 49ers. They have a win total of 10.5, one of the largest in the NFL.

Advertisement

One of the biggest reasons for optimism is the 49ers have an advantageous schedule. The 49ers’ schedule isn’t just the easiest in the NFL this season, according to Sharp Football Analysis (which uses opponents win totals to project schedule strength, it’s the easiest by a wide margin. That not only helps the 49ers in their quest to get back to the playoffs, it will probably help Purdy’s numbers.

Mostly MVP races are decided late in the season, and Purdy has an incredibly soft final stretch to the season. There’s not one game the 49ers can’t win over the last eight weeks, and they don’t face a single defense that should scare anyone. Even better for Purdy, three of the games are in prime time. Nobody’s MVP case has ever been hurt by winning games on Sunday or Monday night late in the season:

• Week 12: vs. Panthers (Monday night)

• Week 16: at Colts (Monday night)

• Week 17: vs. Bears (Sunday night)

If Purdy plays well down the stretch and the 49ers make the playoffs, the narrative part will come along too. The 49ers have lost some talent, and the newly-paid Purdy would be credited for carrying a lesser supporting cast into the playoffs. He’ll put up good numbers, as he always does in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. And he doesn’t need to be a better player than Jackson, Allen or anyone else above him in the list. MVP doesn’t necessarily go to the best player. We’ve seen that.

Purdy could finish the season with the numbers, team success, narrative and newness on his side. That would have him in the MVP discussion. That’s all you could ever ask from a 28-to-1 shot.