The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won a season opener since 2013; so why would it be different this year?
Honestly, this streak defies any kind of logic so I’m just saying they’re going to win because I figured it’d be a better headline. Here’s everything you need to know about the Colts math-defying feat:
What NFL team has gone the longest without winning a season opener?
It should surprise no one that the answer is the Cleveland Browns. They lost 13 consecutive home openers between 2005-17. The Colts are now second on the list having gone 11 years without a season-opening win. Yes, they tied Houston in 2022 but that’s still not a win.
What are the odds the Colts would not win 11 consecutive season openers?
We’re now at .06%, using win probability numbers based on the spread. That means there was a 1 in 1,667 chance this would happen. That’s roughly the chance of getting hit by lightning during a thunderstorm.
But it’s probably even more unlikely than that. There are seven active NFL teams that have not won at least 7 consecutive openers. The Colts have a .497 winning percentage during their streak, the next best winning percentage by a team is Seattle from 1976-83, which was at .410.
| Streak | Team | Years | Pct. |
| 13 | Cleveland | 2005-17 | .279 |
| 11 | Indianapolis | 2014-24* | .497 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 1968-76 | .313 |
| 8 | Indianapolis | 1984-91 | .362 |
| 8 | Seattle | 1976-83 | .410 |
| 8 | Oakland | 2003-10 | .289 |
| 7 | Arizona | 1992-98 | .384 |
*-active streak
Why can’t this be the year? The Colts are favored over the Dolphins
Yes, the Colts are 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.
It’ll only be the fifth time the Colts are favored in an opener during the streak but they were a seven-point favorite in two of them — tying Houston in 2022 and handing the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars their only win in 2020. They’re not winning this game.
How important is winning the opener?
It appears to matter. Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule, winning the opener makes it more than twice as likely to reach the playoffs. Of the 63 teams to start 1-0, 38 made the playoffs, 60.3%. Of the teams that lose the opener, 28.6% reach the postseason. (The two teams that tied didn’t make the playoffs.)
Why can’t the Colts win openers?
Perhaps you notice the only franchise to be on the above list twice is the Colts. And perhaps you noticed the first streak started in 1984 after the team moved to Indianapolis in the middle of the night from Baltimore. I don’t believe in curses but if I did …
The Baltimore Colts have the best winning percentage in season openers all-time with at least 11 openers, going 20-11, a .645 winning percentage.
The Indianapolis Colts have the worst winning percentage in season openers of active NFL franchises at 13-27-1, a .329 winning percentage.
Joel A. Erickson covers the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
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