After a wild Week 1 where four preseason Top 10 teams went down, including unranked Florida State shocking the college football world with a 31-17 upset of then-No. 8 Alabama on Saturday, ESPN has completely overhauled its 2025 College Football Playoff bracket projections.
Following losses by preseason No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Clemson and No. 6 Notre Dame, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach shook up their Playoff projections ahead of Week 2’s slate of games.
Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked team. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.
Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:
Bonagura: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Miami
Both ESPN writers expect Tulane to come out of the highest-ranked Group of Five champion after winning the American Conference, bailing on Boise State repeating in that position after the Broncos lost their season-opener in convincing fashion to South Florida last Thursday.
That said, they split on the No. 5 seed with Bonagura expecting Oregon to finish the regular season as the Big Ten’s third team behind projected Top 2 seeds Ohio State and Penn State. Schlabach, meanwhile, has Miami getting the fifth seed as the ACC champions after knocking off Notre Dame at home on Sunday.
Bonagura: No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon
ESPN’s writers split on how many Big 12 teams ultimately make the field, with Bonagura projecting Arizona State will still make the 12-team field despite losing the Big 12 title game to Utah, while Schlabach gives the Utes the No. 11 seed as his Big 12 champions.
Bonagura and Schlabach flipped their fifth and sixth seeds with Bonagura slotting the Hurricanes as the No. 6 seed after beating Florida State in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, Schlabach has the Ducks as his No. 6 seed as the Big Ten’s third team in the 12-team field.
Bonagura: No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Clemson
Bonagura projects defending ACC champion Clemson secures the No. 10 seed after dropping their season-opener to LSU at home, where it will play another Week 1 loser in the seventh-seeded Longhorns, which make the field as the SEC’s third highest-ranked team despite not returning to Atlanta.
Schlabach expects an all-ACC first round matchup after last year’s ACC champion Clemson gets the No. 7 seed after falling to Miami in this year’s conference title game, where it faces off with Florida State, which makes its first-ever Playoff appearance two years after being held out.
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas
Bonagura remains quite high on Utah, projecting the Utes will win the Big 12 championship over Arizona State as both teams make the 12-team field, where it will face off against ACC runner-up Florida State despite falling to Miami in the conference title game.
Schlabach pits a pair of preseason Top 10 teams that fell in Week 1 in his 8 vs. 9 matchup, with Notre Dame making the 12-team field to face the preseason No. 1-ranked Longhorns, who makes its third-straight Playoff appearance despite not playing for the SEC title.
CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 5 Miami vs. No. 4 Georgia
ESPN’s dueling writers are split on the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal, with Bonagura expecting the Longhorns to beat Clemson in the first round before what amounts to a home game in Dallas against the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions, who both writers expect will lose to Ohio State in the league title game.
Schlabach projects a wild Cotton Bowl that would pit transfer QB Carson Beck and Miami against his former program, the SEC runner-up Bulldogs, who earn the final Top-4 seed despite falling to LSU in the SEC Championship game from Atlanta.
CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU
Schlabach: No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State
Both writers expect Dan Lannings’ Ducks will advance past the first round only to travel across the country to play in the Orange Bowl, though they differ on Oregon’s competition with Bonagura projecting LSU will earn a Top 4 seed despite losing the SEC title game to back-to-back league champ Georgia.
Schlabach, meanwhile, sees the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions in a rematch from Week 5 of the regular season when Penn State plays the Ducks, who once again fall in an All-Big Ten CFP quarterfinal after it famously lost to eventual national champion Ohio State last season.
CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Ohio State
As already mentioned, both Bonagura and Schlabach fully anticipate the reigning CFP national champion Buckeyes building off its Week 1 upset of Texas en route to securing 2025’s No. 1 overall seed as the Big Ten champions after losing in Indianapolis last season.
Where they split is Ohio State’s Rose Bowl competition, with Bonagura riding the FSU train under head coach Mike Norvell and new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, while Schlabach projects Notre Dame dispatching Texas in the first round only to fall to the Buckeyes in the Granddaddy Of Them All.
CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
The final quarterfinal is a lot more complicated with Bonagura projecting the Sugar Bowl will be the Carson Beck bowl with the former Bulldogs transfer facing his former program in New Orleans a year after their quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, though Georgia gets the better of the ‘Canes this time.
Schlabach, meanwhile, expects SEC champion LSU will effectively host FSU after the Seminoles get revenge on Clemson in their opening round matchup, though that ride ends in New Orleands as Brian Kelly finally notches a Playoff win.
CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl
Bonagura: No. 4 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Both of ESPN’s prognosticators project the Buckeyes will continue their Playoff success and face the SEC runner-up in the first CFP national semifinal, though they differ on the SEC representative.
Bonagura expects Kelly and the Tigers will escape the Orange Bowl with a victory over Oregon, only to succumb to Ohio State in Arizona, while Schlabach projects the Bulldogs will edge out Miami before running into the defending champion Buckeyes with a national title game appearance on the line.
CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Bonagura and Schlabach both expect the Nittany Lions will make the CFP national semifinal for the second consecutive season, though they disagree on their seeding in the game.
Bonagura has Penn State facing the SEC champion Bulldogs in their home away from home in Atlanta, while Schalbach expects to see his projected SEC champion LSU will utlimately send the Nittany Lions packing with a second straight victory inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
CFP National Championship
Bonagura: No. 2 Penn State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
And it all comes down to this, the 2025 College Football Playoff national championship game, where the reigning champs from Ohio State get to defend their title inside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Where the ESPN writers differ is who the Buckeyes will play in a true 1 vs. 2 matchup, as Bonagura forsees an All-Big Ten championship game in a rematch from Indianapolis against the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile, Schlabach expects LSU to be the SEC’s last chance to avoid a third-straight Big Ten national champion.
#College #Football #Playoff #ESPN #predicts #12team #bracket #full #bowl #slate #Week