The , but if you were deep in the gourd and legume scene with your loved ones on Saturday, you didn’t get away unscathed. In college football, even the most innocuous slate can become a head-turner, leaving you staring at your Yahoo Sports scoreboard wondering aloud, “What is going on in the Rose Bowl?!?”, or “wow, the Gators are putting it to Arch!”.
The Gators taking down the Longhorns doesn’t move them into a significant conversation beyond resuscitating Florida’s chances to find its way back on the path to an SEC title game. Meanwhile, Texas was already shook up in Week 1, so a second loss moves them from the No. 1 team in the country before the season started to -240 to miss the playoffs entirely.
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Let’s take a look at some movers and shakers this week, along with my thoughts on some of the biggest Week 7 college football games.
Movers
Not many believed in Virginia, brushing off their Friday night win over Florida State as the type of standard one-off upset under the home lights that college football is known for, while assuming the Cavaliers’ entry into the AP rankings would be short-lived. However, UVA consolidated its arrival into the conversation with a win at Louisville, and the Cavaliers’ remaining ACC slate features nothing but winnable games – an ACC Championship Game appearance isn’t out of the question.
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Notre Dame doesn’t have the opportunity to play for a conference title, so they have the unenviable task of not just having to win their remaining games, but the Irish are the only team that also needs “style points” — the added cosmetic value of hammering their opponents to prove their worth. The betting market has taken notice, pushing Notre Dame from -17 to -21.5 by kickoff against Boise State, where the Irish won by exactly 21.
Texas Tech made its move two weeks ago at Utah, but the Red Raiders quelled suggestions that might be a fluke by not just beating Houston, who had been undefeated, but covering a two-touchdown spread with relative ease.
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Shakers
Winless UCLA didn’t just finally win a game, the Bruins shook up the college football world with the , winning outright as 24.5-point home underdogs to Penn State. There is no shortage of jokes about James Franklin moving from losing the big games to dropping the “small” ones, but for the Nittany Lions, it’s no laughing matter that Penn State is now +675 to make the College Football Playoff less than two weeks after being over a field goal favorite to beat Oregon.
Speaking of fortunes changing in a fortnight, there was some surprise in the mainstream media about Cincinnati being a short favorite at home to undefeated Iowa State, but it’s important to realize just how tightly rated almost all the teams in the Big 12 are, and how much home-field advantage plays into the point spread calculus. It wasn’t a matter of “Vegas” knowing something when the Bearcats took a big lead, but Cincinnati is now 2-0 in the conference and rated high enough to be 10.5-point home favorites against UCF this Saturday, with woeful Oklahoma State after that.
Betting the big games for Week 6
No. 24 South Florida (-1, 67.5) at North Texas
Tell those involved in the American Conference that this isn’t a big game on Friday night – the first of many from the league that has the best chance of representing the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff.
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South Florida has wins over Boise State and Florida, but the Bulls will need to win the conference in order to make sure that those nationally-recognized wins matter on a macro level. North Texas is undefeated, but hasn’t played a team rated even nationally average by the betting market.
The total suggests a shootout, and that sounds about right, given both teams’ offensive abilities. Defensively, North Texas has a small advantage in success rate, but South Florida has the advantage in line yards allowed, despite already going against the aforementioned big names and Miami (FL) — arguably the biggest force in the trenches nationally.
Before the season, I would have projected the Mean Green to be a small favorite here, but the Bulls’ ability to battle up front against teams with more traditional pedigree – and teams that have gone on to look impressive against other high-quality programs – has earned them their rating boost. There’s a better chance that they can push North Texas around, versus the opposite.
Pick: South Florida ML (-115)
No. 8 Alabama (-3, 51.5) at Missouri
Alabama got out of Athens with a win and then survived a slugfest with Vanderbilt, but life in the SEC doesn’t quit – and if the Crimson Tide aren’t ready for Mizzou, they may just get beat this week.
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Speaking of success rate and line yards, in charting those defensive metrics there are two SEC teams that chart off to the far-left — the good area of the graph. The first is the well-known defense of Oklahoma, but not far behind is Missouri.
The Tigers’ toughest games have been Kansas and South Carolina, so we’re not going to go overboard here, but Alabama’s struggled to run the ball at the level to which it has grown accustomed, and the defense has given up a surprising number of big plays – and had others just miss.
More importantly, having to come off the two weeks the Tide have just had, for an early kickoff on the road against Missouri – fresh off its bye – has been recognized by the betting market. This game opened Alabama -5.5, quickly moved to -3.5 and has been bet down to -3.
Those points may not be relevant, as QB Beau Pribula has all the mobility of Diego Pavia but without the publicity, making the Tigers live for what will seem like a bigger upset than it actually is.
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Pick: Missouri +3
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (-7.5, 55.5)
Indiana did it big at home over Illinois in the undercard of its season, but it’s time for a heavyweight tilt, and on the road to boot.
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The Hoosiers showed some road vulnerability in their first trip away from Bloomington, only rushing for 2.7 yards per carry at Iowa. That won’t work against the Ducks, who (no matter the recent developments for Penn State) shut down the Nittany Lions’ duo of Kaytron Allen (12 carries, 54 yards) and Nic Singleton (11 carries, 21 yards) in their last outing. Indiana will also need the same two-interception day they got at Kinnick Stadium, but Dante Moore has thrown just one all season.
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This game doubles as a fork in the road for the Heisman trophy race, as it will be hard to make a case for the losing quarterback going forward, but until Indiana beats an annual contender, we’ll be leaning to bet against it. It helps that a preseason lookahead line of -14 suggests that the current spread of -7.5 comes with some value for two teams who’ve shined equally so far.
Pick: Oregon -7.5
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (-2.5, 42.5)
If it didn’t have a nickname (whichever you choose to use), the Red River rivalry might not be included here after Texas’ second loss, but the Cotton Bowl should be rockin’, regardless. Particularly, if Superman comes out of the telephone booth.
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The subterfuge about from a hand injury has gotten weird enough to involve a Mexican food chain, but Sooners’ head coach Brent Venables hasn’t given any indication whether the Heisman-frontrunner will be back or whether sophomore Michael Hawkins will start this game for the second straight year.
We improved to 3-2 in our collection of bets from our when Florida State backdoored the summer spread of +7.5, and this game provides another example of getting the best of the number early, as we’re already holding Oklahoma +10.5.
While we’d lean Longhorns at this short of a number, expecting Hawkins to play, the last thing we’d want is to be fading Mateer in a possible triumphant return, even if Oklahoma can afford to lose this rivalry game (while Texas can’t).
No. 15 Michigan at USC (-2.5, 57.5)
As Penn State withers away, there’s room in the theoretical top four of the Big Ten, with Ohio State and this week’s Indiana-Oregon winner.
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USC comes off a bye, after a loss, where it would have had every reason not to show up for a battle in Champaign. Instead, the Trojans were nipped at the buzzer in a game they could have won. It was an impressive loss, and now it’s Michigan’s turn to take part in the Big Ten’s newest tradition: the cross-country road trip.
Michigan was lined as the favorite before the season, but that has now flipped to the Trojans, though perhaps far not enough, as I have this projected over a field goal. The Wolverines have done well to run through Nebraska and Wisconsin, but if that’s why their rating has pushed into the tier of national contenders, while understandable, it will require Michigan to play at that level against an offense with firepower they haven’t seen all season, in order to cover this number.
Pick: USC -2.5
No. 10 Georgia (-3.5, 45.5) at Auburn
The “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” isn’t the coolest nickname for a game, but if that’s factual, it needs to be included here as a sixth “big game.” Plus, a tight point spread helps.
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Georgia was -7 in the summer lookahead lines, and Auburn might have been included in our Game of the Year article, if it weren’t for the more obvious value on Oklahoma over Texas, since THE WINDOW’s preseason projection here was UGA -3.5.
Now that the line is down to our fair projection, the Dawgs become a more viable option. Auburn’s done a nice job defensively, with a success rate comparable to Florida, Texas and LSU, but Georgia’s already overcame a better one on the road, winning a battle of wills at Tennessee, who also have the offense to threaten Smart’s defense.
Having let the Alabama game slip through their fingers, and knowing this is already Georgia’s last tough road game of the season, we should get the best version of Kirby Smart’s group. While getting the hook will make this a popular underdog pick in many circles this week, if -3 shows up on UGA at a reasonable price, we’ll be there to hop on it.
Advice: Wait and shop for Georgia -3 (-120 or better)
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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