After a load of surprises in Week 10, Week 11 around the NFL didn’t do much to upend the NFL Survivor landscape.
But there were sweats.
The Texans were a popular pick and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Titans. My pick, the Ravens, might have lost if not for a concussion to Dillon Gabriel putting Shedeur Sanders in the game. It was a predictable week by the outcomes, but the paths to get there were anything but.
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But hey, whatever works. So now, check out the process for my Week 12 pick below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 12
Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. Also, just for the record — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so I won’t pick a team I’ve already used. That said, I won’t eliminate such a team until I get to my final decision, because we don’t know if you used the team I used.
Bye Week!
The easiest ones. I can’t get these wrong!
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Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
Four out. I like easy! We’ve got 28 more.
Opponent Is Too Good
Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings.
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia)
Houston Texans (vs. Buffalo)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Kansas City)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Indianapolis)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay)
New York Giants (@ Detroit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ LA Rams)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Seattle)
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Nine more off the board, 19 to go.
They’re Too Bad
You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Jacksonville)
Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans)
Cleveland Browns (@ Las Vegas)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Cleveland)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta)
New York Jets (@ Baltimore)
Six more out leaves us with 13.
Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.
Island Games
This one isn’t a hard-and-fast category — if I don’t have another pick I like and feel like a prime-time (or Europe) game is just the overwhelming choice, I might double back. Generally speaking, the spotlight games are just weird. That’s not analysis, but also you know I’m right. I would much rather avoid games on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night, and I’d especially like to avoid overseas games.
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Buffalo Bills (@ Houston)
Carolina Panthers (@ San Francisco)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Tampa Bay)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Carolina)
Four more. We have nine left — our nine contenders.
The Contenders
Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. NY Jets)
Model Projection: Ravens 28.57-18.76, Ravens 74.1% win rate
Pros: The Ravens are getting better at the exact time that the Jets are getting (way, way) worse.
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Cons: How much better are the Ravens getting? They needed Shedeur Sanders to fall apart to take down the Browns last week.
Chicago Bears (vs. Pittsburgh)
Model Projection: Bears 28.53-22.58, Bears 64.2% win rate
Pros: The Bears have only lost once since Week 2, while the Steelers will either have Mason Rudolph or a broken Aaron Rodgers.
Cons: For all their wins lately, the Bears haven’t had any convincing wins. Bunch of squeakers that don’t inspire confidence.
Detroit Lions (vs. NY Giants)
Model Projection: Lions 29.54-19.51, Lions 73.8% win rate
Pros: An angry Lions team taking on Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston? Sign me up.
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Cons: I got nothin’. Even the Detroit schedule gets harder going forward, so if you’ve saved them this long, you probably want to use them now.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota)
Model Projection: Packers 25.56-15.06, Packers 79.0% win rate
Pros: The Vikings offense is pretty untenable right now.
Cons: Is the Packers offense that much better?
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Arizona)
Model Projection: Cardinals 22.38-20.03, Jaguars 43.1% win rate
Pros: The Cardinals started 2-0 and are 1-7 since, while the Jaguars keep winning despite no one thinking they’re really that good.
Cons: Well, remember, no one thinks the Jaguars are really that good.
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New England Patriots (@ Cincinnati)
Model Projection: Patriots 30.71-21.21, Patriots 71.6% win rate
Pros: The Bengals started 2-0 and are 1-7 since (hey, I just said that about another team). No one can beat the Patriots lately.
Cons: Road game? With the Bengals still rolling Joe Flacco and now without Ja’Marr Chase, “Patriots have to travel” is all I got.
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Dallas)
Model Projection: Eagles 27.51-24.80, Eagles 56.4% win rate
Pros: The Eagles defense is particularly stout.
Cons: The Eagles offense is particularly … not.
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Chicago)
Model Projection: Bears 28.53-22.58, Steelers 35.8% win rate
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Pros: The Bears just aren’t as good as “7-3” looks.
Cons: The Steelers similarly aren’t as good as “6-4” looks, and they might be down their starting quarterback and running back.
Seattle Seahawks (@ Tennessee)
Model Projection: Seahawks 27.03-15.48, Seahawks 80.1% win rate
Pros: Even off a loss, the Seahawks are No. 1 in DVOA. The Titans are as far from No. 1 in DVOA as it is physically possible to be without being an NAIA team.
Cons: Again … road game I guess? Not much else here.
The Pick
Seattle Seahawks (@ Tennessee)
Really, this comes down to remaining schedule—the Patriots still have games against the Giants and Jets after this week, while the Seahawks’ schedule is (relatively) tougher. They do face Atlanta and Carolina, so it’s not like it’s a murderer’s row, but still, I’d rather “Seahawks vs. Titans and Patriots vs. a New York team” than “Patriots vs. Bengals and Seahawks vs. an NFC South team.” YMMV, but it’s enough of a tiebreaker for me.
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Honorable Mention
Baltimore Ravens (vs. NY Jets) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Detroit Lions (vs. NY Giants) — if you didn’t use them when I did
New England Patriots (@ Cincinnati)
2025 record: 9-2
Week 1: Broncos (W)
Week 2: Rams (W)
Week 3: Chiefs (W)
Week 4: Packers (L)
Week 5: Cardinals (L)
Week 6: Steelers (W)
Week 7: Bears (W)
Week 8: Colts (W)
Week 9: Chargers (W)
Week 10: Lions (W)
Week 11: Ravens (W)
Week 12: Seahawks
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