Kyle Dubas Won The Pettersson Trade. What’s Next For That First-Round Pick?

On Friday, the Pittsburgh Penguins made the first of what is likely to be several moves before the NHL trade deadline on Mar. 7.

The Penguins traded defenseman Marcus Pettersson and forward Drew O’Connor to the Vancouver Canucks for a 2025 conditional first-round pick, forward Danton Heinen, defenseman Vincent Desharnais, and forward prospect Melvin Fernstrom.

The first-round pick will come via the New York Rangers from the blockbuster J.T. Miller trade with Vancouver, and it is top-13 protected. If the Rangers finish within the top-13 this season, they have the option to either keep their 2025 first-round pick or defer the pick to 2026.

The Pettersson trade happened late on Friday. Penguins GM and POHO Kyle Dubas wished Pettersson and O’Connor well and thanked them for their contributions to the organization, and he also spoke on the direction a trade like this continues to take the Penguins.

“[Friday’s] trade continues to move us in the direction set one year ago, which is to continue to add young prospects, young players, and draft capital to the Penguins as we chart our course to return the club back into contention as urgently as possible,” Dubas said.

He welcomed Heinen and Desharnais into the fold and talked about what they each bring to the lineup – as well as Fernstrom’s upside – but perhaps most interesting is what he said about the conditional first-rounder.

“The Rangers’ first-round draft pick provides us with another strong asset that we can use to acquire an elite young player in the draft or via trade,” Dubas said.

Yes. The Penguins will have more draft picks than any other team in hockey within the next three drafts – and that includes 11 and counting in 2025. Dubas certainly won this trade, as he returned a first for an asset many expected to get a second out of – and he didn’t even have to take on that much cap to do it with Desharnais and Heinen, who are both signed through the end of 2025-26 for $4.5 million combined under a cap that will be $7.5 million higher next season.

Here’s what may be on the horizon for the Penguins.

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Who is next to go?

Well, if Dubas’s comments to the media on Saturday morning are any indication, they have a very clear deadline plan:

With that said, it’s almost a given that the other pending-UFAs on the Penguins’ roster will be dealt by the deadline.

Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk and forward Anthony Beauvillier are the “headliners” left, as the other pending-UFAs – Jesse Puljujarvi, Boko Imama, Matt Nieto, and Ryan Shea – aren’t likely to return much but may still be dealt for late-round picks.

Because of the market for defensemen – which is very scarce – Grzelcyk could return more than some might think. Given that Pettersson was able to return a first-rounder without the Penguins taking on all that much salary in return, it’s certainly conceivable that Grzlecyk returns a third – especially since he’s probably one of the better defensemen left on the market.

His power play prowess and offensive upside – as well as relatively low cap hit for a defenseman playing top-four minutes – should make him an attractive bargain for contending teams who need a boost on their blue line.

As far as Beauvillier is concerned, he returned a fourth and a fifth when he was dealt two different times last season. Although he’s been more productive this season – particularly in a top-six role – a fourth is probably what a reasonable return looks like.

Assuming Dubas deals both of those guys, the Penguins would have 13 picks minimum this summer.

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What to expect this summer

As mentioned before, the salary cap is going up to $95.5 million this summer and into next season, which is a $7.5 million jump from this season’s $88 million. If the Penguins unload all of their UFA contracts, they’ll have around $25.3 million in cap space.

Having two first-round picks – either in 2025 or 2026 – gives Dubas some options to work with. The Penguins have 29 draft picks over the next three draft years – more than any other team in the NHL – and that includes 15 picks in the first three rounds.

Dubas has indicated that they can use those higher-value picks to acquire elite young talent from the draft and via the trade market.

Don’t be surprised to see him use the latter.

“With regards to the news of the salary cap agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA [Thursday] and using our cap space, I think the draft picks are great to have,” Dubas said Saturday. “And we either have to execute on them and draft really good players or use them to acquire players that fit what we’re trying to do. And we’ll certainly do that.”

Now, it’d probably suit him best to wait and see what happens with that conditional first. If the Rangers finish in the bottom-13 – and their pick is relegated to a deep 2026 draft – it may serve him best to hold onto that pick.

However, if the Rangers do make a push – and that pick becomes a late first-rounder in a not-so-deep 2025 draft – he’d likely get more value out of leveraging that first-round pick in a trade to acquire a younger, elite player with some term.

It would not be at all surprising to see Dubas leverage some of their higher-value draft capital for good players. The goal for Dubas and Fenway Sports Group – Pittsburgh’s majority ownership group – is to contend again “as urgently as possible.” They want to have one more run with the core, and if you’re doing the math, Evgeni Malkin’s contract expires after the 2025-26 season.

The Penguins may not be good enough to make a run next season, which may be Malkin’s last. But trading for a good young player that will be in Pittsburgh for the other end of the retool on-the-fly will help the Penguins get ahead of their retool. And – given the fact that the salary cap will be spiking – any current contract they trade for is probably going to have team-friendly value.

With all the free cap space they will have, the free agent market is certainly something to look out for as well. Even though the Penguins will also probably sign or take on some cap dumps similar to Heinen and Desharnais so they can acquire more draft capital, they have enough free cap space to both add talent and take on some dead cap.

Expect the Penguins to draft quite a lot this summer – but also expect them to get creative and make some moves. They have enough cap flexibility and valuable draft capital for the next several years – with even more likely on the way – to help improve their roster in both the short-term and the long-term.