Saturday’s reveal of the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee’s top 16 teams was… well, revealing. The Big Ten had three teams listed in the field, with a fourth just on the outside looking in at this selection which could be considered an unofficial list of real title contenders.
The reveal came complete with an appearance from Bubba Cunningham, chair of the committee and the athletic director at North Carolina. His comments on the rankings shed light on the committee’s thinking and what aspects of a team’s resume are most important.
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This is the best information we have gotten on how teams project for the NCAA tournament all season. Let’s take a look at what it said about the Big Ten teams involved – and the work to be done for the teams that were not.
No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers
Projected seed: 2
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 3 (11)
This week’s schedule: vs. Illinois Tue., vs. Oregon Sat.
Wisconsin made perhaps the biggest statement of the Big Ten season Saturday by walking into Mackey Arena and beating Purdue by 10. The impressive nature of that win is enough for the Badgers to take the Boilermakers’ spot on the 2-seed line. Wisconsin is playing absolutely beautiful basketball at the best possible time.
No. 13 Purdue Boilermakers
Projected seed: 3
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 2 (7)
This week’s schedule: at Michigan State Tue. (Peacock), at Indiana Sun.
The Boilermakers checked in as the third-ranked No. 2 seed in the field. At the time of the reveal, their most recent game was a two-point road loss at Michigan, which shows the committee respects both teams involved (more on the Wolverines in a minute). Later on Saturday, Purdue lost to Wisconsin, so their positions are flipped here from the committee’s ranking.
No. 12 Michigan Wolverines
Projected seed: 4
Committee Top 16 seed (and overall ranking): 4 (14)
This week’s schedule: vs. Michigan State Fri.
The Wolverines were the second-ranked 4-seed after their dramatic victory over Purdue Tuesday, although Cunningham said they were switched with St. John’s (No. 16 overall) in order to “balance the regions.” They answered the committee’s ruling with a close win at Ohio State, and road rivalry wins never hurt a team’s resume.
No. 14 Michigan State Spartans
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: vs. Purdue Tue. (Peacock), at Michigan Fri.
Michigan State and Marquette were the two teams that Cunningham said were “right there” when asked about the squads that nearly snuck into the top 16. That was after a surprising home loss to Indiana and before Saturday’s double-digit road win at Illinois that handed Tom Izzo the Big Ten wins record, so this feels right for the Spartans.
Big East men’s Bracketology: Top 16 gives St. John’s credit, but only just
No. 20 Maryland Terrapins
Projected seed: 5
This week’s schedule: vs. USC Thu.
Maryland was not mentioned alongside Michigan State as a near miss for the top 16, but this projection sees little difference between the Terrapins and Spartans. In fact, Maryland is seven spots ahead of Michigan State in the NET Rankings. A 26-point win over Iowa gives the Terps momentum heading into next week.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected seed: 6
This week’s schedule: at Wisconsin Tue., at Duke Sat.
It remains tough to nail down what exactly this Illinois team is after a week that saw a home win over UCLA that wasn’t as close as the score indicated and a double-digit home loss to Michigan State in which the Spartans outscored the Illini by 18 points in the second half. Illinois better find some consistency quick with road games at Wisconsin and Duke this week.
UCLA Bruins
Projected seed: 7
This week’s schedule: vs. Minnesota Tue., vs. Ohio State Sun.
The loss to Illinois ended UCLA’s win streak at seven. That, in combination with a close win over a rudderless Indiana team, indicates that the Bruins might be slowing down from their torrid pace. Still, the Bruins are firmly in the field and should be favored in all but one of their remaining five games (Feb. 28 at Purdue).
Oregon Ducks
Projected seed: 8
This week’s schedule: at Iowa Wed., at Wisconsin Sat.
The Ducks finally got off the schneid last week with home wins over Northwestern and Rutgers. Oregon has lost its last four conference road games, though, and winning away from home is exactly what it will have to do at Iowa and Wisconsin this week. Aside from the Badgers, though, there isn’t a scary team left on the Ducks’ schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected seed: 10
This week’s schedule: vs. Northwestern Thu., at UCLA Sun.
The Buckeyes continue to tread water. They beat up on Washington at home on Wednesday but could not finish the job against “That Team Up North” in Columbus on Sunday. Ohio State may make it into the NCAA tournament on the respected depth of the Big Ten alone, but it is worth asking if it will make much noise once it gets there.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected Seed: 11
This week’s schedule: at Penn State Wed.
The Cornhuskers hold steady here after losing at home to Maryland and winning at Northwestern last week. The 6-7 record in Quad 1 games and 2-1 record in Quad 3 games indicates this is right where Nebraska belongs. This is a good team, but at the lower end of an NCAA tournament field.
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