Bills-Broncos NFL divisional round playoff preview: Josh Allen tries to keep it going at Denver

Josh Allen has become the player who the NFL postseason is revolving around.

In a wide-open field, the biggest question is whether reigning NFL MVP Allen and the Buffalo Bills can get over the hump and finally make a Super Bowl. Allen was excellent in a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card round, including a touchdown drive in the final minutes to take the lead. The road to the Super Bowl doesn’t get easier though.

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Next in the Bills’ way is the Denver Broncos, who went 14-3 this season and got the No. 1 seed. As the top seed they were resting last week while the Bills had a tough game against the Jaguars. There is skepticism about the Broncos due to their hot-and-cold offense, but the defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season.

There aren’t any unbeatable teams in this season’s playoff field, but there also aren’t many easy opponents either. If Allen and the Bills do make a Super Bowl, they know they’ll have earned it.

Previous meeting this season

These two teams didn’t play this regular season but they do have some recent history. Last season the Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 in the wild-card round. In that game Buffalo got 272 passing yards and two touchdowns from Josh Allen and 120 rushing yards from James Cook. It was an absolute domination, though the Broncos are a better team this time around.

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Health update

There’s no worry about Josh Allen missing Saturday’s game, but injuries to his finger, knee and foot were noted on the injury report. He’s not 100% coming into this game. Buffalo also had two season-ending knee injuries at receiver last week, to Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers, leaving the Bills very thin at that position. In the secondary, safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Maxwell Hairston missed practice to start the week. Denver is clearly the healthier team; the Broncos didn’t have anyone miss practice at the beginning of the week. That’s the benefit of a bye.

The head coaches

Sean Payton’s offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season but it’s hard to deny the overall results. Payton has taken the Broncos, who didn’t make the playoffs for eight straight seasons after winning Super Bowl 50, to the postseason each of the past two seasons. He has firmly established himself as one of the best coaches of this era and a probable Hall of Famer, especially if he can take Denver to a Super Bowl. Sean McDermott won’t get that kind of respect until he takes Buffalo to a Super Bowl, and he has a shot at it this season.

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Key player for the Bills

Khalil Shakir had 12 catches for 82 yards against the Jaguars last week, and he’ll need to be a big part of the offense with Buffalo’s injuries at receiver. The Bills simply don’t have many other pass catchers. It’s not an easy task against the Broncos’ strong cornerback unit, which includes last season’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, but Buffalo needs some production from its wideouts if it will win. Brandin Cooks will be a part of that too, but Shakir is the focal point.

Key player for the Broncos

Josh Allen hasn’t been easy to sack in his career, but was sacked 40 times in the regular season. That was way up from only 14 last season. That’s good news for the Broncos, who led the NFL with 68 sacks. That was 11 more than any other team. Their best pass rusher is Nik Bonitto, who had 14 sacks. Jonathon Cooper, John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen also had seven or more sacks in the Broncos’ group effort to get to the quarterback, but Bonitto is the star of the group. His ability to get to Allen and get the Bills’ quarterback down to the ground might be the difference in which team moves on.

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Betting market watch

The Bills opened as 1-point favorites at BetMGM, before the line flipped early Tuesday to Broncos -1. Denver has been poor in the role of favorite this season, winning 10 of 12 games but only going 3-9 against the spread. The health of RB Ty Johnson will be vital for a banged-up Bills offense that just lost WR Tyrell Shavers to a torn ACL. Josh Allen also got beat up in the 27-24 wild-card win over the Jaguars. Buffalo’s rush defense has been porous, but Denver has just the 19th-best rushing attack by DVOA. Can a healthier, well-rested Broncos team with home-field advantage take advantage? — Ben Fawkes

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.

Prediction

The Bills will have the best player on the field Saturday. Josh Allen provides a huge edge, and he has been a fantastic playoff performer throughout his career, just without the help from his team to get to a Super Bowl. That could continue. The Broncos are rested and have the defense to make things difficult on Josh Allen. The Broncos don’t get a lot of respect, considering their 14-3 record, but it is a good, well-coached team that has lost only once since Sept. 21. And don’t underestimate the home-field advantage Denver has in mile-high altitude. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Allen put on his cape and carried the Bills to a win, but it’s a difficult challenge.

Broncos 20, Bills 17