The concept of positional value tends to trigger a lot of people during the draft process. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys rarely regret drafting the best player available each year. Overcomplicating matters with ancillary factors such as need, value and testing can be counterproductive and lead to missed opportunities and maybe even busts.
But as long as there is a a salary cap and a free agent market, those factors are very much part of the roster building process. While some will debate the weight each factor carries, no one can argue they don’t matter at all. It’s the weight and importance some teams place on things such as positional value that could allow a steal to fall right into the Cowboys’ laps this April in the draft.
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Caleb Downs, the All-World safety from Ohio State, is quite possibly the best player in the entire 2026 NFL draft. The 6-foot, 206-pound safety has it all: elite athleticism, extraordinary processing skills, off-the-charts football IQ, scheme diversity and more.
Downs isn’t just the best safety prospect in the 2026 draft class but he’s one of the best safety prospects seen in years. He’s a game changer of the Ed Reed variety and has scouts irresponsibly mentioning a Hall of Fame future in Downs’ scouting profiles. While all prospects come with risk of bust, Downs has so many proven traits he’s as close to bust proof as there is.
Consensus draft boards have the 21-year-old slotted No. 3 overall in this class but annual devaluation of the safety position threatens to disrupt that lofty status. Based on annual compensation, safety is the lowest value position on an NFL defense. Replaceability and year-to-year instability make it a position teams tend to avoid heavy investment.
Unlike some of the premium positions, free agency typically provides starting quality options on an annual basis. Late-round picks and even undrafted free agents tend to carve out significant safety roles in the NFL, making it an ideal position to go cheap. The rise of 2-high safety looks only devalues the already devalued position.
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But every once in a while, a safety prospect comes around that’s so talented and so versatile, exceptions must be made. Downs is one of those prospects. Good enough to win as a centerfield safety in a single-high role, a gamebreaker in the box, or even manned up in the slot against receivers and/or tight ends, Downs can do it all.
In 2025 the first safety didn’t fall off the board until Pick 27 when Baltimore selected Malaki Starks. The two seasons prior, there wasn’t a single safety drafted in the first round at all. Of Pro Football Focus’ top five graded safeties this year, only one, Kyle Hamilton, was drafted in the first round. The point is, even highly regarded safety prospects fall come what draft day.
There’s a better-than-zero chance the scouting departments on other teams also see everything discussed here and are willing to make an exception for Downs. But it’s also possible they have bigger fish to fry at other positions and allow this special safety to slip through the cracks like so many have before him.
The Cowboys may see a bona fide steal, at a position of need, fall right into their laps at pick No. 12.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Draft-day steal? Safety devalued, could best prospect reach Cowboys?
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