ESPN Analytics ran their simulations and updated their model for predicting which players could be available at different spots in the 2025 NFL draft, which gave us a good idea of who could be off the board when the New Orleans Saints make their first-round pick at No. 9. It’s important to know which players the Saints are high on. At the same time, it’s valuable to learn who won’t make it to their pick. That goes a long way to thin out the field and project realistic options.
With that in mind, here are the prospects with less than a 50% chance of being available when the Saints go on the clock at No. 9 overall this Thursday night:
- QB Cam Ward, Miami: 0%
- WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado: 0%
- EDGE Abdul Carter, Penn State: 0%
- DT Mason Graham, Michigan: 5%
- OLB Jalon Walker, Georgia: 9%
- OT Will Campbell, LSU: 13%
- RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: 22%
- OT Armand Membou, Missouri: 24%
So we should expect the top quarterback, the best offensive linemen, and a couple of this year’s most coveted defenders to not make it to No. 9. That sounds about right when you’re picking in the back half of the top 10. Maybe a playmaker like Jeanty slips to the Saints, but that’s looking unlikely. Too many teams picking ahead of them are signaling their interest in him.
Who does that leave for the Saints if these guys are all unavailable? The Saints would have their choice of this year’s cornerbacks like Will Johnson (Michigan) and Jahdae Barron (Texas), or pass-catchers: wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), plus tight ends Tyler Warren (Penn State) and Colston Loveland (Michigan). We shouldn’t rule out a lineman on either side of the ball. Texas left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. could start right away at left guard or push Taliese Fuaga to the right side, his college position, which may put Trevor Penning out of the lineup. This could be early for Georgia outside linebacker/defensive end Mykel Williams, but if the Saints believe he can help them rush the quarterback off the edge, they should consider him.
And we can’t talk about this without addressing the elephant in the room: Shedeur Sanders. The Colorado quarterback is ESPN Analytics’ predicted pick for the Saints by a very wide margin. Their model has the Saints with a 28% chance of drafting Sanders, and no better than 12% for any other prospect. But so much of the buzz around this has been coming from Sanders’ side, not from anyone close to the Saints. It just doesn’t seem like he’s as high on their board as a lot of observers on the outside believe.
We’re just days away from the start of the draft, and these questions will get answered. For now we’re moving just like the Saints and gathering as much information as we can.
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