Welcome to the first of many weekly columns highlighting the fantasy football fades of the week! I am your host, Matt Okada, and will be bringing you half a dozen potential busts each and every Thursday, from now until the fantasy playoffs.
As a note, just because a player earns a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean they should be benched — it depends on the rest of your roster or the options on your waiver wire. But you can expect them to fall short of expectations (when I get them right).
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[It’s not too late — join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
Without further ado, here is my list for Week 1 of the 2025 season.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert was not drafted to be a locked-and-loaded fantasy starter, but for anyone who took him as a late-round QB solution, as half of a streaming duo, or as a QB2 in 2QB leagues … this is not a great week to play him. Los Angeles will be missing Rashawn Slater at left tackle after his season-ending torn patellar tendon, which means Joe Alt will move to LT while Trey Pipkins moves to RT … against Chris Jones and the Chiefs defense. Alt should hold up just fine, but the last time Pipkins played a full year at right tackle (2023), he allowed the most sacks at the position (13).
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In the “early days” of this matchup, Herbert was a fantasy star, averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game from 2020-2022, with at least 19.7 points in all six games. But over the last two years, Herbert has recorded fewer than 14 fantasy points in all three meetings with Kansas City. His 11.9 PPG against the Chiefs in that span would put him closer to QB32 than QB12 in any given week, and remove him from starter conversation completely.
What to do ❓ Outside of truly desperate scenarios, leave Herbert out of your starting rosters wherever you can this Friday. Some surprising names I’d prefer as a streamer or DFS play include Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. (And if you’re reading this after Friday’s game in São Paolo, Brazil, let me know how it went @MattOkada on X).
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
One of the best places to look for “fantasy fades” is in statistical outliers. Statistical outliers like James Cook’s 2024 touchdown success. Over his first two seasons, Cook scored nine total scrimmage touchdowns, for a rate of one score every 43.4 touches. Last season, he scored 18 touchdowns — trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs — by finding the end zone once every 13.3 touches. It was a massive spike for Cook, but it was also unnaturally elite for any running back, considering the league’s most efficient scorers only clock in at a touchdown every 17-18 touches. And touchdowns are a fickle statistic: the only players to log 16+ scrimmage scores in consecutive seasons over the past 15 years are Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry and Todd Gurley.
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Ultimately, Cook is (likely) going to score (far) fewer touchdowns in 2025 — for perspective, his season rushing touchdown line is set at 8.5, essentially half of the 16 he scored last year. That automatically puts him on fade watch … and then he draws the Ravens in Week 1. In 2024, Baltimore’s defense allowed the fewest rush yards per game (80.1), the fewest rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.57, per Next Gen Stats), and the second-fewest expected points added per attempt (-0.16, also per NGS). In other words, they were the toughest run defense in football. Cook himself struggled in this matchup, totaling just 106 rushing yards on 26 carries across their two meetings last year (including the Divisional Round) … with zero touchdowns.
What to do ❓ Considering you drafted Cook in the third round as either your RB1 or RB2, you’re likely going to start him in Week 1. But he’s going to be hard-pressed for yards, is less likely to score and does not offer a ton of upside in the passing game. He’s a high risk for single-digit fantasy points and could absolutely be benched for a “fringier” RB2 like TreVeyon Henderson, James Conner or even Tony Pollard.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
In my earlier this week, I expressed my belief that second-year running back Braelon Allen is, in fact, going to see significant work in the New York Jets backfield. He has been tagged for the “David Montgomery role” by former Lions coaches Aaron Glenn (Jets’ HC) and Tanner Engstrand (Jets OC). And while that naturally slots Breece Hall into the “Jahmyr Gibbs role” … that doesn’t mean Hall will score “Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy points.” For one, this offense is very unlikely to be as effective as Detroit’s was under Ben Johnson, meaning fewer trips to the red zone, less time of possession and an overall downturn in fantasy points. For two, Hall, while talented, is not as explosive as Gibbs. And for three, Justin Fields is going to claim around 10 rush attempts per game … roughly 8-9 more than Jared Goff.
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Gibbs typically saw between 15-18 touches per game for Detroit. Considering the presence of Allen and the rushing prowess of Fields, ballparking Hall for 15 touches a game in 2025 feels generous. And while Gibbs has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per touch these last couple years, Hall has been down at 0.82 per touch — or roughly 12 points per game, if he sees 15 touches. That mark is barely good enough to scratch low-end RB2 territory in a given week. And Hall starts with the Steelers in Week 1, who were and should still be an excellent run defense and who offer a closer game than the Jets are likely to see most weeks, which might favor Allen on the snap-share scale.
What to do ❓ As with Cook, you likely drafted Hall to be your RB2, and he should be a fine play there or in your FLEX spot. But he has similar single-digit downside and would ride the pine behind any of the trio named above, as well as D’Andre Swift or maybe even Isiah Pacheco.
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
If you’ve followed me at all this offseason, you know how out I am on Garrett Wilson. And while I don’t mean to pile on Jets fans … I’m fading the young receiver everywhere. Wilson is probably going to see around 25% of the targets in this offense … and that sounds pretty incredible initially. Until you remember that Justin Fields is his quarterback. Fields has averaged 25.1 pass attempts per game as a starter since 2021. A 25% piece of that pie is just 6.3 targets, which is almost three fewer per contest than Wilson’s averaged through his first three seasons. Additionally, Fields has a rather low 4.0% touchdown rate and has never topped 17 passing touchdowns in a single season. Since he entered the league in 2021, the messy aggregate of Jets quarterbacks has averaged slightly more TD passes per game (1.1) than Fields (1.0).
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And yet, Wilson totaled just seven touchdowns over his first two seasons, and needed 154 targets to hit seven with Aaron Rodgers in 2024. With a major drop in target volume, and a potential return to his touchdown range of 3-4 per season, it’s very hard to see Wilson outpacing his 10.3 points per game from 2022 or his 9.8 from 2023. If you need an extra pinch of evidence: Wilson’s season-long betting lines are right around 950 yards and just 4.5 touchdowns. Even with 100 receptions, that would put him in fringe WR3-WR4 territory.
What to do ❓ Until I see otherwise, I’m not excited about starting Wilson as a fantasy WR2 in any week. But in a game against Pittsburgh, where the Jets may be less pressed to throw 30+ passes, the bar drops even further. Wilson is a low-floor WR3 who could easily end up around 7-8 fantasy points if he doesn’t find the end zone.
WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
On the surface, this offseason has been a good one for Jameson Williams. New offensive coordinator John Morton has expressed an interest in throwing the ball downfield more often, and head coach Dan Campbell has in 2025. And, in fairness, I like his chances for several big games over the course of the season. However, throwing the ball downfield requires one crucial asset: time. And Jared Goff may not have much of it on Sunday.
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Last year, the Lions allowed a 33.5% pressure rate — almost exactly league average — and were extremely efficient when facing that pressure. But that was before the departures of offensive wizard Ben Johnson and Pro Bowl offensive linemen Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler. Meanwhile, the Packers were just fine generating pressure … but they just added Micah Parsons. If he plays on Sunday as expected, Goff may have far less time in a clean pocket than he’s used to — and that doesn’t bode well for Williams.
On the whole, Williams saw a 17.5% target share in 2024, second on the team behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. But his average route depth of 14.1 yards was second-highest on the team and his 11.3 average depth of target was the highest. On passes of fewer than 10 air yards, his target share dropped to 12.1%. If Goff is forced to dink-and-dunk against the Packers front, you can expect higher ceilings for St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs … but a much lower floor for Williams.
What to do ❓ While Williams could hit that one big play for a 40-yard touchdown, missing out on that play probably means busting in Week 1. And he should be much more “benchable” than guys like Hall or Wilson. There will be weeks to play the potential breakout receiver, but this isn’t one of them.
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TE Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
I know, I know, after all the Tyler Warren hype the past month, after he climbed his way comfortably into TE1 range in many drafts, I’m flagging him as a fade in Week 1? I know, it’s disappointing, I like the 14th overall pick as much as the next guy. But he’s still a rookie tight end making his NFL debut … with Daniel Jones at quarterback. In his Week 1 debut, even with eight targets, Brock Bowers scored just 8.8 fantasy points. Back in 2023, Sam LaPorta scored just 6.4 points on opening weekend. Both those guys went on to finish as the TE1 overall. Kyle Pitts scored 5.1 points in his debut, Mark Andrews scored 4.6 and George Kittle scored 5.2. You get the picture.
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Meanwhile, over the last two seasons, there have only been two weeks in which a tight end topped 10 fantasy points with Jones at quarterback: Darren Waller’s 10.6 in Week 2, 2023 and Theo Johnson’s 12.6 in Week 9, 2024. He’s a better solution than Anthony Richardson … but arguably not by much (at least for Warren). Michael Pittman Jr. is still the top target in Indy, Josh Downs is reportedly healthy and Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the offense. Warren is an exceptional prospect, and should break out at some point this year, but I’d be very hesitant rolling him out in his debut.
What to do ❓ If you drafted Warren and nobody else at tight end, you’re probably stuck starting him over most options available on the waiver wire. However, if you’re feeling a little frisky, both Titans tight end Chig Okonkwo and Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts are worth considering over Warren for Week 1.
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