Dalton Del Don reveals four players who are being undervalued by fantasy football analysts.
Mispriced Quarterbacks
Bo Nix was a fantasy revelation as a rookie, and his early 2025 “expert consensus rank” as the QB10 is too low. Nix posted a 1:4 TD:INT ratio over his first four games as a pro, but he was the QB6 from Week 5 on, when he averaged more fantasy points than Jayden Daniels. Nix piled up the fifth-most rush attempts among quarterbacks to go along with the seventh-most passes in the red zone. He finished as the QB6 in expected fantasy points last season, just ahead of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. And Nix was slow played as a rookie, rarely throwing downfield over the first half of the season. Nix recorded a 21:6 TD:INT ratio with a 7.4 YPA over the last eight regular season games, including a 9:1 mark on the road. He played the final six games with a fracture in his back!
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Nix suffered the third-fewest EPA lost from sacks per dropback as a rookie, so he was genuinely impressive. He’ll also continue to benefit from Denver’s top three offensive line and Sean Payton’s system, which is something of a cheat code. There’s a big five when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks entering 2025 — Allen, Jackson, Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow — but Nix is my QB6.
Justin Fields was fantasy’s QB7 through six weeks last season, sandwiched between Allen and Hurts. Fields put up those fantasy stats while learning a new system and playing conservatively, resulting in a modest 5:1 TD:INT ratio over those six games he started (Pittsburgh’s opponents averaged just 14.3 points over that span). Fields has his warts as a passer, but he should be ranked as top 10 fantasy QB given his rushing ability. He’s one of only three QBs (Daniels, Jackson) in NFL history to average at least 50 rushing yards per game (54.9 when starting). Fields has been the QB5, QB9 and QB7 in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons.
Assuming the Jets don’t draft a quarterback early, New York figures to let Fields start all of 2025, with 14-year vet Tyrod Taylor behind him on the depth chart. Fields is used to playing outdoors and in poor weather, and now he gets to throw to his old OSU teammate Garrett Wilson behind a better offensive line in New York. Jets new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand is coming from Ben Johnson’s coaching tree, so Fields’ QB19 ECR is way off right now. Fields is my QB9.
Isaac Guerendo is ranked where?!
Guerendo is the RB50 in early ECR, which is sure to rise significantly over the summer. The 49ers are almost certain to draft a running back, but Guerendo enters the favorite to be San Francisco’s RB2 with Jordan Mason now with the Vikings. Christian McCaffrey will be 29 years old coming off a season ruined by bilateral Achilles tendinitis and later a PCL injury, so he carries extra injury risk.
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Guerendo has durability concerns as well, but he might be the most athletic RB prospect of all time who’s playing in a Kyle Shanahan system. Guerendo averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game during four games in which he saw at least 50% of the snaps last season, which would’ve ranked fifth among rookies over the past decade. He accomplished that while facing by far the highest Stacked Box% (52.2) in the league, and that’s not counting Guerendo passing up two touchdowns when he voluntarily took a knee at the end of long runs to help secure victories. Obviously, it came during a smaller sample, but Guerendo’s rush yards over expected per attempt (4.45) more than doubled the league’s qualified leader (Saquon Barkley got 2.04 RYOE/Att). And for what it’s worth, McCaffrey (-0.92) finished seventh-worst in RYOE/Att.
The 49ers are coming off a true nightmare season that included being the most injured team, and San Francisco goes from having the league’s toughest schedule in 2024 to the projected easiest in 2025. Guerendo possesses the proverbial “league winning” upside should CMC go down again, so expect his ECR to climb.
A sleeper tight end
Brenton Strange got a huge fantasy boost with Evan Engram moving on to Denver. Engram owned the third-highest target share (25.1%) among tight ends last season, and Jacksonville’s WR depth chart is incredibly thin behind Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ has emerged as Jacksonville’s clear alpha, but Christian Kirk also left the Jaguars during the offseason, so the team has a bunch of vacated targets available. Strange should have a real role in an improved Liam Coen offense, and he’ll be more developed than any potential rookie while entering his third year in the league.
Strange, who started over a 21-year-old Tyler Warren at Penn State, has top 12 fantasy TE upside, but his early ECR is lagging as the TE35.
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