If you are relatively new to fantasy football — let’s say you began playing within the past decade — then you may not realize there was actually a time when rookies weren’t expected to be immediately great.
Today, of course, it’s basically a given that one or more first-year quarterbacks will reinvent the game in some fantastic and previously unimagined way. Also, the NFL delivers a new version of Puka Nacua or Brian Thomas Jr. pretty much every season. And rookie tight ends now commonly finish at or near the top of the scoring leaderboard.
Again, it wasn’t always this way.
Incredibly, we used to tolerate multi-year development arcs for nearly everyone. We were dangerously naive and recklessly patient. We did not yet understand that every 22-year-old was supposed to bully the league as soon as he arrived.
Also, back in the old days, we failed to recognize the urgency with which fantasy analysts simply must deliver scorching and inflexible takes on the NFL’s youngest players. It was a less enlightened age.
In fact, in a different era, we might have foolishly held out hope for the three players discussed below, who are surely doomed after imperfect first seasons …
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
At age 22, Harrison Jr. delivered 62 receptions for 885 yards and eight scores, finishing as a playable-if-not-spectacular fantasy WR3. Fifteen years ago, we might have been encouraged by his first NFL season.
Of course it is also true that 15 years ago there was zero chance a rookie receiver would have found his way into Harrison’s ADP range (18.3, WR9), so his performance would not have been regarded as a fantasy disaster.
MHJ didn’t separate at an elite level as a rookie — this is supported both by his tape and his tracking data — but his best moments were plenty impressive:
Arizona certainly didn’t give him many layups last season (14.2 ADOT), which made him a volatile receiver tied to an extremely volatile quarterback.
If his usage remains roughly the same in his second season, he’ll need to level up in terms of ball-tracking ability and contested-catch success. As a rookie, he legitimately did not make enough plays on catchable-yet-difficult opportunities; he hauled in just 16 of 38 contested chances (42.1%) according to PFF. It’s fair to acknowledge that he did not play to his size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) and athletic traits.
The nice thing about Harrison in 2025 is that you won’t have to draft him in an absurd neighborhood that represents his absolute best-case potential outcome. He definitely won’t be the first receiver from his draft class off the board. MHJ will be a tier or three behind Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey and Thomas.
Realistically, Harrison should probably be taken in the vicinity of this next receiver, who shared a few of his first-year shortcomings …
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Unlike Harrison, Odunze did not step into a situation in which he was guaranteed significant target volume. Instead, he shared a receiving room with Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore, two accomplished vets with a combined 10 individual 1,000-yard seasons between them. There was never an easy or realistic path for Odunze to erupt as a rookie. Still, he ultimately delivered a perfectly respectable 54 catches for 734 yards on 101 targets, with a pair of 100-yard performances along the way.
Odunze’s season was wildly uneven, however, and he was only occasionally in sync with his quarterback — an issue that became comically evident when the Bears took shots downfield. Odunze led the team in deep targets (24), but he caught only four of them, none resulting in touchdowns. Just horrendous non-production for which he is only partially responsible. We know he doesn’t lack deep-ball ability; he averaged 17.8 yards per catch in his final collegiate season at Washington while leading the nation in receiving yards.
Allen is entering free agency and not likely to return to Chicago (although the team has nearly $70 million in cap space), so Odunze should expect a serious bump in workload. That’s the first piece of good news.
The second big news item impacting Odunze is, of course, the arrival of this gentleman …
Ben Johnson was very clearly the most exciting and innovative offensive-minded coaching candidate in this year’s hiring cycle, and there’s no arguing with his track record (or his trickery).
Detroit’s offense has ranked top-five in both yardage and scoring in each of the past three seasons with Johnson as OC. He had multiple coaching opportunities from which to choose this offseason, and he landed in Chicago within 48 hours of the Lions’ divisional-round loss. It suggests a high degree of enthusiasm for the team’s offensive foundation, including the 23-year-old quarterback …
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Look, if you think Ben Johnson is only equipped to coach an offense with a Goffbot as its QB, then you probably rolled your eyes at the hire. Williams definitely did some of his best work this season in improv situations, often on the run, rarely in a Jared Goff-like manner.
But let’s allow for the possibility that Johnson — an obviously creative play designer — can draw up some fun stuff for a less-refined and less-experienced quarterback with a richer skill set.
Williams struggled with accuracy in his first season, but that’s not to say he was a scattershot passer. Instead, he was inaccurate in a very particular and consistent way, always missing away from trouble — wide of his targets on out-breaking routes, sailing deep shots, rarely risking turnovers. He threw only six interceptions on the year, but also just 20 touchdown passes. Chicago’s offense could have used a few additional contested opportunities. Williams was notably brutal on deep attempts, completing only 20 of 75 throws (26.7%) with a ghastly passer-rating of 59.6.
Fortunately, we have multiple collegiate seasons from Williams indicating he can, in fact, deliver an excellent deep ball. There’s no reason to think his downfield issues are unsolvable. He’s gonna need the incoming play-caller to give him permission to put the ball at risk when receivers find themselves in favorable coverage situations. He is also going to require easy answers to pressure, which did not always exist in Chicago’s offense in 2024.
And if the front office wouldn’t mind dedicating a slice of their cap space to the interior O-line, that would be ideal. If Williams is sacked another 60-plus times in 2025, it will be a civic scandal and a crime against football.
We should note that Williams somehow ran for 489 yards without a touchdown this season, so he offers as-yet-unrealized rushing upside, too. He essentially has all the tools we look for in a potential breakout QB, and his team context has improved dramatically ahead of free agency and the NFL Draft.
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