NFL offseason power rankings: No. 31 New Orleans Saints seem to be in a severe descent

Other NFL team previews: 32. Titans

Through two weeks last season, the New Orleans Saints were the talk of the NFL. They scored 91 points and blew out both opponents, including a 44-19 thrashing of a Dallas Cowboys team that was expected to be good. The Saints looked like an offensive powerhouse.

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That ended up being one of the biggest early-season mirages in NFL history.

After that great start the Saints went 3-12, fired coach Dennis Allen midseason and scored 20 or fewer points in 11 of 15 games. Their only wins over the last 15 games were against the Falcons, Browns and Giants. The Saints somehow looked like the 2013 Broncos for two games and perhaps the worst team in the NFL after that. The outlook isn’t much better for this season.

The plan for the Saints always seemed to be that when Drew Brees retired, there would be a total teardown. That really didn’t happen. It still hasn’t happened four years after Brees’ last game. The Saints weren’t recklessly aggressive as usual this offseason, but didn’t blow things up and didn’t make moves that indicate they have the self awareness to know they should be in a rebuild. They still have a terrible 2026 cap situation and one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Even a brutal 15-game stretch to end the season didn’t force them into facing reality.

“We’re going to try to win every game we can win,” Saints general manager Mickey Loomis told ESPN. “It’s what our players expect, it’s what our fans expect, what our coaches expect. It’s what I expect.”

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Maybe it needs to get even worse for the Saints to realize they’re at rock bottom. And it might. Kellen Moore is a rookie head coach and he does not step into a good situation. Derek Carr retired and while he wasn’t great for New Orleans, the remaining quarterback solution is probably second-round pick Tyler Shough, a curious pick for a fading team considering he’ll turn 26 years old in September. The surrounding cast has some recognizable names who have had good careers but is short on stars who are still in their prime. The Saints’ only blue-chip player under 28 years old might be receiver Chris Olave, but he hasn’t played a full season in the NFL due to four confirmed concussions.

If the Saints are as bad this season as they were over the final 15 games last season, perhaps that would stop them from restructuring contracts of old veterans like Alvin Kamara, justifying the losses due to an “avalanche of injuries,” re-signing underachieving players like Chase Young to big money, drafting older quarterbacks for a quick fix, and not dealing with their salary cap reality. It also might result in the first overall pick (and perhaps an all-out blitz to get hometown hero Arch Manning to enter the draft).

The Saints will have to give Moore some patience. He is a well-regarded offensive mind, but there’s a reason the Saints weren’t a realistic option for just about any of the truly top candidates in this past head-coaching cycle. The Saints had one of 32 head-coaching jobs to offer, and that’s about it.

The Saints have reached a point in which a horrific season is the best outcome. It would be a wake-up call and perhaps lead to a franchise-changing quarterback. Like the first two games last season, the Saints’ idea that they can turn things around doing things the same old way seems to be nothing but a mirage.

Offseason grade

The Saints paid three players more than $10 million per season: defensive end Chase Young, safety Justin Reid and tight end Juwan Johnson. Young has 14.5 sacks over the past four seasons and got a surprising $51 million over three years. Reid and Johnson are both 28 years old, and Johnson has just 1,622 yards over five seasons. New Orleans also signed Brandin Cooks, who is 31. None of those moves have much future equity. The Saints lost cornerback Paulson Adebo, a 25-year-old who had been ascending but suffered a season-ending injury last year. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $54 million deal. The Saints’ first-round pick of offensive lineman Kelvin Banks Jr. was prudent. The second-round pick of quarterback Tyler Shough might work out — many draft experts liked Shough as one of the best passers in the draft — though we’ll see if he’s a long-term answer for a team in transition. Most of the Saints’ moves don’t make them better beyond this season. They’re unlikely to have much impact in the present either.

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Grade: D

Quarterback report

A weird offseason with Derek Carr led to his retirement and many questions about what the Saints would do at quarterback for 2025. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener are back, but they posted passer ratings of 70.4 and 62.6 last season respectively. Second-round pick Tyler Shough will probably be the starter this year. Shough played parts of seven college seasons (!!!) with three schools, and that experience can be viewed as a positive. His throwing ability impressed evaluators before the draft. There are also drawbacks. Shough didn’t have a good college season until last year, as he dealt with numerous injuries his first six seasons, and as he enters his age-26 season the clock has already been ticking. He’s about a week older than Trevor Lawrence. Still, he should get most of this season to prove to the Saints he can be a long-term answer at quarterback. If he’s not, New Orleans is probably going to be in a position to take one of the top QB prospects in the 2026 draft.

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “With Derek Carr’s surprising retirement, New Orleans arguably has the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Oddsmakers aren’t big believers, either, as the Saints have their lowest win total (5.5) since 1998 and are tied for BetMGM’s worst Super Bowl odds at 250-1.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Alvin Kamara is one of several veteran running backs who outkicked expectations last year. But maybe it’s time to stop putting our chip on his number. Kamara steps into an age-30 season, and he’s tied to a substandard offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback room. Kamara has also had trouble scoring touchdowns (he has seldom used for the chippies) and staying healthy in recent years (he’s played a full season just once since turning pro). Unless my draft rooms offer a major discount on Kamara, I’ll note the actuary curves and sit this one out.”

Stat to remember

Among the Saints’ projected starters on offense and defense, none ranked in the NFL’s top 10 at their position last season in Pro Football Focus’ grades. Only two ranked in the top 15 (receiver Chris Olave at No. 15 and new safety Justin Reid at No. 11), and two others were inside the top 20 (linebacker Demario Davis at No. 19 and defensive end Carl Granderson at No. 18). Erik McCoy would have been the top-ranked center but he played in just seven games due to injury. Every one of those players other than Olave will be at least 28 years old this season. The Saints badly need some young players, like former first-round picks in offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga and defensive tackle Bryan Bresee as well as 2024 second-round cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry to ascend to a blue-chip level, and this year’s draft picks like Kelvin Banks Jr. to make an impact right away. The roster is in severe need of young talent.

Burning question

Can Chris Olave stay healthy?

It’s scary for NFL players when concussions start to pile up. Last season Olave suffered two concussions, causing him to miss nine games. He has played three NFL seasons and has four confirmed concussions.

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The good news was that after missing New Orleans’ last eight games of the season, he said he wasn’t having any issues.

“I feel good. I feel regular,” Olave told reporters after the season. “Really no symptoms as far as concussion symptoms since I’ve been hurt.”

Olave is probably the most valuable player on the Saints’ roster. New Orleans traded a lot to move up and draft him in the first round in 2022, and he has played well when healthy. He’ll be just 25 years old this season. If Olave has a healthy season he might be in line for an extension worth at least $25 million per season. But it will be hard for the Saints to pay that if there are more concussions. It’s an important season for Olave in many ways.

Best case scenario

Before last season, the Saints posted a winning record in six of seven seasons and didn’t sink below seven wins. For all the doom and gloom about the Saints after a terrible finish last season, they can point to a ton of injuries and believe 5-12 isn’t their true level. If Tyler Shough is as good as some analysts believe he can be, New Orleans’ receivers like Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed (who was having a breakout season before suffering a torn meniscus) stay healthy and the Saints squeeze one more productive season out of their aging veterans, could they compete in a division with a lot of vulnerable teams? It’s not like we haven’t seen first-year head coaches lead huge turnarounds before; it happens just about every year. The front office must think the Saints can still compete based on some of their moves. Maybe everyone else is wrong about the Saints being one of the NFL’s worst teams this season.

Nightmare scenario

If the Saints are terrible, there’s a silver lining: We won’t be forced to watch them. The Saints and Titans were the only teams to not get one standalone game, whether it was a prime-time game, international game or any other game in an exclusive television window. That is telling. The Saints being the worst team in the NFL this season is very possible and it’s not the worst outcome. A much worse outcome is Tyler Shough not looking promising enough to be a future franchise quarterback but playing just well enough for the Saints to win a few games. That could knock them out of a top-five pick in next year’s draft. Imagine this: The Saints go 5-12 because they drafted Shough, rather than going 3-14 or worse with Spencer Rattler, and next April they watch someone else draft Arch Manning after Manning has a tremendous season for Texas. That’s not just a nightmare scenario, that’s something the Saints would regret for a generation.

The crystal ball says

The Saints had been stuck in mediocrity for a few years. That changed for the worse, though the team doesn’t seem to realize it. The Saints seem content pushing for another record around .500, which is their ceiling. It’s possible the Saints get seven or eight wins, but the more likely outcome is New Orleans bottoming out. Tyler Shough will start most or all of the season, but won’t do enough to convince the team that it needs to pass on a first-round quarterback next year. Arch Manning is a fantasy 2026 pick for the Saints but if he doesn’t enter the NFL or doesn’t live up to the hype this season, there should be plenty of quarterbacks in next year’s draft that can help revive the franchise. It won’t be fun but a truly awful season might lead to the Saints finally hitting the reset button and starting over. Then at least there would be something to look forward to.