Despite having his name circulated in the rumour mill, it always felt like any trade involving Josh Norris would have to wait for the offseason. Considering the time of the season and the generally conservative nature of the industry, it would have been easy for Staios to stand pat given the circumstances.
Many expected it.
General manager Steve Staios spun that possibility on its axis, striking an unexpectedly massive deal trading Norris and defenceman Jacob Bernard-Docker to the division rival Buffalo Sabres for Dylan Cozens, a 2026 second-round pick and left-shot defenceman Dennis Gilbert.
With all due respect to Gilbert, an impending unrestricted free agent who will serve as a depth option once Tyler Kleven returns from his injury, Cozens is the obvious centrepiece of the return for the Senators. The young centre turned 24 in February, meaning he is almost two calendar years younger than Norris, who turns 26 in May.
Cozens has played parts of five seasons with the Sabres. In 341 career games, the centre has recorded 77 goals and 197 points. His best season was his 2022-23 campaign when he tallied 31 goals and 68 points.
Cozens has failed to replicate that production level over his last two seasons. In 79 games last season, Cozens only tallied 18 goals and 47 points. His production has dropped to 11 goals and 31 points in 61 games this season.
The Senators hope that the change of scenery will provide the offensive spark Cozens needs. (And yes, it does feel weird to write that, given the Senators’ struggles to score at five-on-five.)
Interestingly, Cozens’ five-on-five production rates are historically much higher than those of Norris, according to NaturalStatTrick’s data.
Cozens:
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2021-22: 0.64 goals/60, 1.46 points/60
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2022-23: 1.33 goals/60, 2.47 points/60
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2023-24: 0.48 goals/60, 1.57 points/60
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2024-25: 0.68 goals/60, 1.88 points/60
Norris:
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2020-21: 0.82 goals/60, 1.56 points/60
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2021-22: 1.07 goals/60, 1.87 points/60
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2023-24: 0.94 goals/60, 1.40 points/60
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2024-25: 0.85 goals/60, 1.14 points/60
Norris has been a more consistent goal producer, but Cozens has outproduced his point production.
Another essential component to this deal is how much Josh Norris has fallen off analytically. His isolated impacts this season have been mediocre.
Despite Norris’ finishing ability, the opportunity to add a player who can help the transition game and move pucks may, and stop me if you have heard this before, be a better fit for the direction of this team.
It may be concerning to some that the Senators, a team that has struggled to finish plays at five-on-five, just traded the player with the team’s second-highest scoring rate.
The Senators also get out from the risks associated with Norris’ surgically repaired shoulder. Injuries often rely on good fortune and genetics, but replacing the uncertainty surrounding Norris with a centre who has only missed four games over the past three seasons is an advantage.
One of the only wrinkles from the Senators’ perspective is that they are banking on Cozens growing his game defensively as Jack Eichel’s game evolved outside of Buffalo.
Corey Sznajder’s ‘All Three Zones’ project highlights where the Senators can be optimistic about Cozen’s growth – he historically does a much better job of getting the puck successfully from zone exit to zone entry.
Ideally, Cozens can resemble the player from two years ago.
The seventh overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft has the pedigree and some untapped potential. The Senators hope he’s the latest in a series of players who have left Buffalo and thrived elsewhere.
Contractually, both players have the same term left on their respective deals. Cozens is currently in the second year of the seven-year contract that runs through the 2029-30 season, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $7.1 million. Unlike Norris, whose $7.95 million cap hit will not match his base salary through the next five seasons, Cozens’ base salary matches his $7.1 million cap hit.
Norris’ base salary fluctuates as follows:
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2025-26: $9.5 million
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2026-27: $9.5 million
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2027-28: $8.75 million
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2028-29: $7.85 million
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2029-30: $7.0 million
By exchanging the two players, the Senators will actually save $7.1 million over the lifespans of their deals. It may be an unintended consequence of the deal, but saving money is a bonus given the uncertain economic landscape.
The way both players are trending, this deal could be characterized by the Senators selling high on Norris while simultaneously buying low on Cozens.
Although Norris’ physicality and penalty-killing proficiency were valuable, most of his value lies in his goal-scoring talent. By trading him at his healthiest peak when he eclipsed the 20-goal mark, the Senators acquired a younger alternative and a better fit – one with a reasonable chance of providing more all-around value. Adding a 2026 second-round pick that could potentially be near the top of the round and approach first-round pick value, is just gravy.
The timing of this deal is interesting because it arguably comes at one of the most critical junctures of the season. The Senators take on the New York Rangers in a matinee tilt tomorrow. They currently hold the Eastern Conference’s second wild card seed but are tied with the Rangers in points. The winner of tomorrow’s game will take ownership of the last playoff spot.
Listening to Brady Tkachuk speak following practice and hearing his voice waver, it was apparent how much Norris meant to the captain and his teammates. They are professionals who understand the business of the game, but there is a human element involved, and it will be interesting to see how the group responds once the games resume Saturday.
By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa
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