The No. 23 Virginia Cavaliers wrap up their home non-conference slate on Monday night as the American Eagles come to John Paul Jones Arena.
Last time out, the ’Hoos struggled early on against a feisty Maryland squad, which played well above its quadrant-four classification in the NET rankings. The Terrapins’ swarming defense had Virginia flustered early on, but behind a season-high 20 points from Dallin Hall, the ’Hoos erupted for 56 second-half points to earn their tenth win of the season.
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On Monday, Ryan Odom and the ’Hoos will look to head into the holidays by earning their 11th win of the season before the ACC schedule gets underway on December 31st at Virginia Tech. Tipoff against the Eagles is set for 6 PM EST with coverage available on ACC Network.
What to know about American
UVA is 6-1 all-time against American, with its lone loss coming in 1951. The ’Hoos last took on the Eagles exactly one year ago today, earning a narrow 63-58 win behind Elijah Saunders’s 21 points.
American is coached by Duane Simpkins, a DMV basketball great who is in his third season guiding the Eagles. Simpkins, who starred at DeMatha Catholic High School as a player, steered the Eagles to the Patriot League Championship and their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014 last season.
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This season, the Eagles have struggled a bit to re-find their rhythm, and head to Charlottesville with just a 7-5 overall record (0-4 on the road). Sitting at 234th on KenPom and 247th in the NET, American represents the last quad-four matchup of the season for the ’Hoos (as it currently stands).
The Eagle to watch out for on Monday night is freshman guard Madden Collins. A true freshman from Columbia, South Carolina, Collins leads the Eagles in scoring at 13.0 points per game despite coming off the bench in all 12 of American’s games and playing just 52% of the team’s total minutes thus far.
A 6-foot-5 slasher, Collins isn’t much of a threat from beyond the arc (24.5%) but uses his length to attack the basket and excels at getting to the free-throw line. Though Collins doesn’t play heavy minutes, when he’s on the floor, he’s going to get his shots up — he shoots on 34.2% of American’s possessions when he’s on the court (the 10th-highest rate in the country).
Greg Jones, a junior forward from Alexandria, Virginia, is the other Eagle to know. Jones will be on the floor more than any other Eagle on Monday night (playing 76% of minutes), and he’s scored in double figures in each of American’s two games against power conference opponents. Though he’s sometimes inefficient from the floor, Jones gets to the line more than any other Eagle and converts from the charity stripe at an elite 84.1% clip.
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The outlook
Virginia is a 27-point favorite in this one, meaning there’s no reason the ’Hoos should struggle to improve to 11-1 heading into ACC competition. Ryan Odom has done a good job thus far of not letting UVA overlook any mid-major competition, so the ’Hoos will look to set the tone early and avoid giving the Eagles any late hope of pulling a major upset.
Once again, the ’Hoos biggest advantage should come on the boards. American doesn’t have a single player on the roster taller than 6-foot-9 (227th in the country in average height), while UVA ranks 33rd nationally in rebound margin (8.6) and is 8-0 when outrebounding its opponent.
If the Eagles were to keep it close, it’d likely be because of a three-point barrage. American loves to let it fly from beyond the arc – a scary characteristic in a heavy underdog — shooting 35.6% as a team from three while earning 38.6% of its total points from three-balls (the 34th-highest rate in DI).
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Prediction:
Virginia 88, American 64
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