Week 12 of the NFL season began with a surprising Thursday Night Football game in which the Buffalo Bills were upset 23-19 by the Davis Mills-led Houston Texans.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
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Our NFL handicapping team of Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 12 of the NFL season.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.
Jacob: Packers QB Jordan Love has carved up five defenses this season: Cincinnati (259 passing yards), Carolina (273), Washington (292), Dallas (337) and Pittsburgh (360).
Impressive, right? Uh … not really. Because the Steelers rank 32nd in the NFL in pass defense. The Bengals rank 31st. The Cowboys rank 30th. And the Commanders rank 29th.
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What about the Panthers? They’re right in the middle of the pack at 16th.
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Now here are Love’s passing totals in his other five games: 174, 176, 179, 183 and 188. Love put up those numbers against the No. 22 (Giants), No. 15 (Eagles), No. 20 (Cardinals), No. 1 (Cleveland) and No. 8 (Detroit) pass defenses.
This week, the up-and-down Love faces Minnesota, which yields just 190.5 passing yards per game (seventh-best in the NFL). The only quarterbacks to eclipse 230 passing yards against the Vikes: Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (326) and Detroit’s Jared Goff (284).
Bet: Jordan Love under 234.5 passing yards (-115)
Jacob: The Bengals will be without their best skill-position player on Sunday against New England, as wideout Ja’Marr Chase was dealt a one-game suspension for a spitting incident in Week 11.
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Well, if anyone is going to benefit from Chase’s costly loogie, it figures to be fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins.
With Chase on the field, Higgins has cleared five receptions just twice this season — he had six in Week 7 against Pittsburgh and seven in Week 9 against Chicago.
Take out those two games, as well as a five-catch effort at Green Bay in Week 6, and here are Higgins’ reception totals: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1 and 1.
In other words, the sixth-year pro exactly hasn’t justified the four-year, $115 million contract the Bengals awarded him in March. That should change, even if just for a week, as he absorbs the action that otherwise would’ve gone to Chase.
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The opponent certainly favors Higgins and the Bengals’ passing game, as the Patriots have allowed 242 completions this season (fourth-most in the NFL) and opposing QBs own a 67.6% completion rate (eighth-highest in the NFL).
Bet: Tee Higgins over 5.5 receptions (-145)
Jacob: As the saying goes, there’s no such thing as a sure thing — unless, of course, you’re talking about betting on the Lions when they’re coming off a defeat.
Going back to Week 9 of the 2022 season, Detroit is 41-13 in the regular season, with the most recent setback being last Sunday night at Philadelphia. The Lions’ record following their previous 12 defeats: 12-0 straight up, 12-0 against the spread.
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Detroit’s average victory margin after those dozen losses is an astounding 17.5 points, including eight wins by at least two touchdowns.
This season, the Lions have immediately followed losses to Green Bay (27-13), Kansas City (30-17) and Minnesota (27-24) with wins of 52-21, 24-9 and 44-22.
Now the angry and vengeful Lions get to take out their frustrations on the New York Giants, who are 2-8 and have dropped four games by double digits.
Bet: Lions -10.5
Fiddle: The story of this game surrounds QB Shedeur Sanders getting his first opportunity to start an NFL game. However, the Browns are likely going to play very conservatively in an attempt to protect Sanders.
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I expect a game plan that primarily relies on the run game and features standout rookie RB Quinshon Judkins. His rush attempts prop line stands at 18.5 for this game, tied with Saquon Barkley and only one behind likely Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Taylor.
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The best way to bet this game is by betting that pass attempts will be down, and the best way to do that is fade Geno Smith’s pass attempts prop at 30.5. The market is already speaking and bringing this down to 28.5 at various shops, but MGM still holds the same price as the open at 30.5 (-110) to the under.
With the lowest game total (36) of the week, fading a volume pass game makes a lot of sense. Smith has only gone over this line four times this season, and three of them were in games where the Raiders were down double digits throughout the contest. Smith has also been throwing a lot of interceptions this season, tied for the most in the NFL at 13, I am inclined to also take the “no” on if he will throw an interception at +135 simply because fewer pass attempts leaves less opportunity, and the line is inflated because of his turnovers season to date.
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Bet: Geno Smith under 30.5 passing attempts (-110), Geno Smith under 0.5 INTs (+135)
Feng: Smith has been awful with interceptions this season with a 4.2% interception rate. However, he finally has a winnable game against Cleveland, especially with Sanders at QB. While the pass attempt market for Smith is usually in the 30s, the market has 29.5 against Cleveland. Based on this data, my model gives a 46.1% chance he will not throw a pick.
Bet: Geno Smith under 0.5 INTs (+135)
Fiddle: The Jaguars absolutely dominated in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers closed as a -3 point road favorite in Jacksonville, only to get trounced 35-6. Lost in the chaos of a box score filled with garbage time stats was that Bhayshul Tuten took on a much larger role in Jacksonville’s rushing offense.
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On the Jaguars’ drive to end the first quarter, Tuten got every carry past midfield, including both touches inside the red zone and converted the touchdown. A few weeks after trading backup RB Tank Bigsby, we are seeing a shift in coach Liam Coen’s preferred back. This same thing happened last year when Coen handed the reins over to Bucky Irving as the Buccaneers offensive coordinator, after Irving was outperforming Rachaad White.
Noticing this shift early is going to be valuable in the betting market. As of this writing, Tuten only has touchdown markets up, and the over 0.5 TDs (+100) at BetMGM is a clear value spot. I will also be looking to add his yardage prop, and this may provide a rare spot I am willing to play alt yardage as a ladder.
I expect the line to be 45 rushing yards or below, and would take it at any number there. I would consider escalators to 75-plus and 90-plus as this might be a Tuten breakout performance. Tuten rushing attempts over 11.5 or below will also be intriguing. I look forward to what the market prices, but the touchdown prop is a solid starting place.
Bet: Bhayshul Tuten Anytime TD (+100)
Jacob: The date: Dec. 24, 2022. The significance: That’s the last time the Philadelphia Eagles picked off Dak Prescott. In fact, it’s the only time Philly has intercepted Prescott since Week 7 of the 2019 campaign.
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Put it another way, in his last seven battles with the Eagles, Prescott has put the ball in the air 249 times. Only one of those passes landed in the hands of a player wearing a green and white jersey.
Yes, Prescott has been picked off six times this season, but those miscues were confined to four games. So he’s played six games without getting picked off.
As for the 2025 Eagles’ secondary, it’s been fantastic — except when it comes to forcing turnovers. Philly has just six interceptions.
Bet: Dak Prescott under 0.5 INTs (+110)
Feng: San Francisco has key players back on offense like QB Brock Purdy, WR Ricky Pearsall and TE George Kittle. The defense has gotten crushed by key injuries, but it helps that offense is way more predictable than defense in the NFL. Carolina had an outlier performance last week in which Bryce Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns. Carolina has a record of 6-5, but this has been aided by an unsustainable 5-1 record in one-score games. They also have double-digit losses to Jacksonville and New Orleans.
My model has San Francisco by 8.6 at home, and the market has already moved from -6.5 to -7 at most books.
Bet: 49ers -7
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