Expectations are sky high for the Washington Commanders entering the 2025 season. That happens when you have a young franchise quarterback and are coming off the best season in 33 years.
Led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington went 12-5 last season and reached the NFC championship game. Returning there will not be easy. The Commanders have a far more difficult slate in 2025, which features two games against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, two more against the Dallas Cowboys and other games against the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears and more.
Washington faces two of the NFL’s toughest divisions in 2025: The AFC West and NFC North. The Raiders are the AFC West’s fourth-place team, but will look much different with new head coach Pete Carroll. In the NFC North, two teams are looking for revenge against the Commanders after embarrassing losses: the Lions and the Bears.
ESPN has released its 2025 projections, including win probability for all 17 games for each team. Where do they project the Commanders to finish in 2025, and how many of their 17 games do they have a favorable win probability in? Here’s a look:
Commanders win probabilities for every 2025 game
- Week 1: vs. New York Giants (66%)
- Week 2: at Green Bay Packers (42%)
- Week 3: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (71%)
- Week 4: at Atlanta Falcons (59%)
- Week 5: at Los Angeles Chargers (49%)
- Week 6: vs. Chicago Bears (54%)
- Week 7: at Dallas Cowboys (52%)
- Week 8: at Kansas City Chiefs (39%)
- Week 9: vs. Seattle Seahawks (61%)
- Week 10: vs. Detroit Lions (31%)
- Week 11: vs. Miami Dolphins in Madrid, Spain (54%)
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. Denver Broncos (52%)
- Week 14: at Minnesota Vikings (44%)
- Week 15: at New York Giants (58%)
- Week 16: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (43%)
- Week 17: vs. Dallas Cowboys (60%)
- Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles (35%)
Commanders’ projected win total: 8.7, ranked 13th in the NFL.
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