Last year marked the 3rd annual Circa Friday Football Invitational, a season-long contest in which participants picked NFL and college football games each week against the spread. The contest, conducted by VSIN, pitted two dozen of the sharpest handicappers and professional bettors on the planet. And me.
Of the 25 entrants, I finished in 13th place. Not great, not bad. Right in the middle. If it was a 12-team College Football Playoff, I would have been left out. Now I know how Alabama felt last year, except I didn’t lose to Vanderbilt.
My final record last season in picking college football games in the Circa Friday Football Invitational was 46-52 (47 percent). Perhaps, flipping a coin wasn’t a great strategy.
The good news is this year I’ve got a different coin. Each Friday here at On3, I will provide my weekly picks. You have been warned. Tail me and take your chances or take the George Costanza approach, and just do the opposite.
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The fine print: sometimes I’ll have winning weeks and sometimes my picks will suck. Godspeed. Onto this week’s six-pack of picks. Lines provided by BetMGM as of Friday morning.
UNLV at Sam Houston, Friday
Any talking head or podcast host can provide a hot take on Texas-Ohio State or LSU-Clemson. But how many can delve into a non-conference game between Conference USA and Mountain West opponents?
Last week, Sam Houston and UNLV opened the season with mixed results – Sam Houston lost at Western Kentucky, UNLV beat Idaho State – but there were some similarities. Both teams put up decent numbers offensively but were dreadful on defense. UNLV and Sam Houston each allowed more than 500 yards and the Rebels missed 17 tackles.
In the UNLV-Idaho State game, there were two turnovers in the end zone and two missed field goals, the same number of missed field goals in the Sam Houston-WKU game. Both teams also had multiple red zone miscues as both games should have easily topped 70 points.
Unless both teams hit the transfer portal in the past six days to shore up their defenses, I see more of the same tonight. The UNLV-Sam Houston total opened at 59½ on Sunday, but it’s gone up. I still like the good offense/horrible defense angle. Over 61½ points
Old Dominion at Indiana
All offseason, Indiana has heard the chatter that last year’s success was a fluke and how the Hoosiers benefitted from a cupcake schedule to earn a College Football Playoff berth.
Year Two of Indiana’s Curt Cignetti Era begins against Old Dominion, another in a long-line of IU’s non-conference patsies. Although I’ve been critical of Cignetti’s scheduling philosophy, the Hoosiers have hammered inferior opponents. It’s been rather impressive.
As a double-digit favorite, Cignetti is 5-1 against the spread. On Saturday, 23½-point underdog Old Dominion visits Bloomington. Old Dominion? They might as well be Old Yeller. It will have the same ending. Indiana -23½
Hawaii at Arizona
Occasionally I will use research and/or trends to back up a pick. That’s when it can get dangerous. Nonetheless, last year there were six Group of 5 teams that defeated Power 5 opponents and then played the following week against an FBS opponent.
Of those six teams, five were favored by less than two TDs in their next game. Those Group of 5 teams, coming off the Power 5 win, went 1-4 straight up and against the spread.
That, my friends, is called a flat spot, which brings us to Saturday night’s game between Arizona and Hawaii in Tucson. Hawaii’s never been a great play on the road – 3-8 ATS the past two seasons away from the islands. Now the Rainbow Warriors not only have to avoid a hangover after last week’s big win, but UH star freshman QB Micah Alejado (ankle) may not be 100 percent.
Arizona will be one of the nation’s most improved teams in Brent Brennan’s second season and the Wildcats’ offense should have plenty of firepower to wear down the fiesty undersized Rainbow Warriors. Arizona -17½
Georgia Southern at Fresno State
Georgia Southern makes the cross country 2,100-mile trek in its season opener to play Fresno State. Last week, the Bulldogs opened their season in a loss at Kansas. They’re not in Kansas anymore, but it won’t matter.
Georgia Southern is much more experienced and talented. Also, historically teams playing their first game against a team in its second game have a higher winning percentage. So much for getting the kinks out in game one theory.
I might have some concern the Eagles could be looking ahead to next week’s game at USC. But Georgia Southern is remaining in California after playing Fresno State and not flying back to Georgia. The Eagles, led by veteran QB JC French IV, should be focused on a Fresno team that struggled offensively in its opener. Georgia Southern -1½
UTEP at Utah State
This one is rather simple. I could breakdown how UTEP will be vastly improved with USC transfer Malachi Nelson at quarterback. Or how Utah State had the nation’s fifth-worst defense last season and it will take a while for new Aggies coach Bronco Mendenhall to turn it around.
Or I can stick with my true and tried approach. Most people refer to UTEP as an abbreviation for the University of Texas-El Paso. That would be correct. But the company I keep knows UTEP stands for something else: “U Take ‘Em Points.” So I will. UTEP +6½
Notre Dame at Miami, Sunday
It may not have the hype of some past Catholics vs. Convicts matchups, but all eyes will be on Notre Dame-Miami Sunday night. There are a lot of unknowns in this Top 10 matchup: Irish freshman QB CJ Carr makes his first college start, while Miami QB Carson Beck makes his first start as a Hurricane.
Cam Ward is off to the NFL, so expect Miami’s offense to regress somewhat this season. However, UM’s defense will be vastly improved. Notre Dame’s offense will rely on a heavy dose of RB Jeremiyah Love to control the ball and take the pressure off Carr.
With both teams trying to avoid mistakes and feel each other out, this should start slow before heating up in the second half. Scoring opportunities will be at a premium so I expect a lower scoring contest with the winner becoming a heavy favorite to make the College Football Playoff. Under 49½ points
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