Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction: Who takes interim crown?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC 324’s main event interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett..

Justin Gaethje UFC 324 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 26-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC

• Height: 5’11” Age: 37 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″

• Camp: ONX Labs (Denver, Co.)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

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Supplemental info:

• Former interim UFC lightweight champion

• NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler

• ^ Shifting combos and counters

• ^ Heavy hips and good dirty boxing

• Strikes well off the break

• Good wrestling and scrambling ability

Paddy Pimblett UFC 324 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 23-3 MMA, 7-0 UFC

• Height: 5’10” Age: 37 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 73″

• Camp: Next Generation MMA Liverpool (England)

• Stance/striking style: Orthdox/kickboxing

Supplemental info:

• Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree)

• Steadily improving striking fundamentals

• ^ Variates shot selections

• ^ Good trips, takedowns and strikes

• Works well from front-headlock variations

• ^ Dynamic submission game

• Dangerous transitional grappler

• ^ Always looks for the back

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett point of interest: The bull in “The Baddy” shop

The main event for UFC 324 features a vacant lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.

Initially stepping onto the scene as a relentless forward mover, Gaethje naturally embodied the phrase “a bull in a China shop” with his unabashed aggression and hardwiring to inflict damage. Traditionally doing his best work when initiating attacks, Gaethje will gain his opponent’s respect with hard hooks and crosses, looking to punctuate his presence with crushing uppercuts and leg kicks when appropriate.

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Similar to a Spartan behind his shield in a phalanx, Gaethje would lean heavily upon his double-forearm guard, planting and looking to counter with immediacy.

Although Gaethje no longer strictly relies on a shelling defense, the 37-year-old still seems to have an inherent hunger to exchange that can sometimes encourage his aggressiveness (which is arguably reflected in the strikes absorbed department of his statistics).

However, Gaethje – under the tutelage of longtime coach Trevor Wittman – has shown improvements in his feints, footwork, and fundamentals since sustaining back-to-back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. In his fight against Tony Ferguson, Gaethje took things to yet another level in the head movement and counter-striking department, putting together an intelligent process that still incorporates the former interim champion’s inherent power and tenacity.

Whether Gaethje is working off of an inside parry or looking to roll under hooks to deliver left hands of his own, the hard-hitting American has steadily developed a taste for counters.

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Akin to other Wittman fighters of the past, like Rose Namajunas, Gaethje has also utilized more lateral and shifting footwork to facilitate sneaky kicks and counters. That said, counters could be a potent, two-way street this Saturday.

Say what you will about “The Baddy,” but Pimblett has been showing steady improvements since stepping onto the UFC stage. From jabbing more and leaping in less to attempting to keep his chin tucked, Pimblett is making an honest effort to even out his game.

The English fighter has long had some deceptively hard kicks that could come in handy for this contest, but Pimblett’s power seems to be more prevalent everywhere after making some clear strides in his strength and conditioning, which has him looking like a ripped Owen Heart.

When in close, Pimblett is good about sneaking knees to the body, allowing him to flow into other offensive opportunities in closed quarters. In fact, knees, in particular, could pay some serious dividends for Pimblett given the dipping propensities of his counterpart.

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Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett point of interest: Protect your neck

Considering where one of the biggest on-paper disparities lies, no one should be shocked to see Pimblett attempt to create grappling opportunities in this fight.

Although Pimblett is more than capable of hitting your more traditional takedown shots in the open and against the cage, the English fighter appears particularly comfortable when working from the clinch.

Almost inviting opponents to press him into the cage at times, Pimblett is OK with working from more negative positions if it means he gets to create contact. No stranger to judo-style attacks, Pimblett is good about briefly disrupting opponents’ bases in order to open up opportunities to get the jump on them.

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Whether Pimblett is alternating between knees to foot sweeps down low or snatching up front-headlocks up high, “The Baddy” has proven that he is a creative fighter that you can’t afford to get lackadaisical with. And if there’s even the slightest daylight in regards to a pathway to someone’s back, you can bet Pimblett is gonna find it and make hay from the position.

Luckily for Gaethje, he’s no stranger to up-close violence. Aside from being an accoladed wrestler, Gaethje also offers up a nasty game in closed quarters that Pimblett will need to respect.

An unforgiving clinch fighter, the former Division I All-American wrestler has the hip triggers to stop deep takedown attempts while still maintaining the aggressive wherewithal to throw uppercuts and leg kicks in small spaces, consistently striking and making his opposition pay off the breaks from either stance.

Gaethje also does a good job of framing off his opponent’s hips in close quarters, utilizing a solid head position to help steer him in the desired direction.

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Whenever Gaethje’s opposition has been able to get deep on a takedown attempt, he is quick to utilize an overhook as he looks to separate grips with his spare hand, bellying down when necessary. That said, Gaethje self-admittedly lacks depth in his submission grappling and has traditionally gotten into trouble whenever his opposition has been able to get past his first layer of defense.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Englishman, listing Pimblett -245 and Gaethje +186 via FanDuel.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction, pick

Between Gaethje’s well-deserved reputation and Pimblett’s convenient run to this title shot, seeing the Scouser so heavily favored can certainly be head-scratching at first glance.

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Favorable beats on the scorecards throughout his career aside, Pimblett has long had a propensity to put his chin in the air, both coming forward and moving in retreat. For that reason, left hooks, in particular, have been a common culprit for Pimblett on the feet.

Given that the left hook is one of Gaethje’s best punches, no one should be shocked if the former BMF belt holder is able to derail the hype train that Pimblett finds himself leading.

The potential problem, however, is that Pimblett could be catching Gaethje at the perfect time.

Gaethje has never had spectacular showings in the strikes absorbed department, largely due to my not-so-contentious theory that the American is fighting with a severe handicap to his vision. Aside from the thick frames he’s been known to sport outside of the cage, Gaethje has always been heavily reliant on a tactile sense of striking that involves things like touch-and-return tactics and hitting off of other contacts like collar ties.

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To Gaethje’s and his coaches’ credit, the 37-year-old has been able to band-aid many of his holes due to the technical and pacing improvements that seem to play off one another. However, vision problems and defensive responses are things that age poorly in combat sports, which is probably why Gaethje has dropped the first frame in his last seven fights in a row.

Whereas Pimblett, despite his slew of defensive holes, has actually shown legitimate improvements in everything from his striking shot selections to his pace management. I also think that Pimblett’s knack for knees and kicks will serve him well, considering Gaethje’s crouching sensibilities as a wrestle-boxer.

This card is full of picks that I’ll not-so-secretly be cheering against, and this is one of them. It’s dog or pass from a betting perspective, but the official is for Pimblett to stun Gaethje on the feet and force a stoppage on the floor via strikes in Round 2.

Prediction: Pimblett inside the distance

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett start time, how to watch

As the main event, Gaethje and Pimblett are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:10 p.m. ET. The fight airs on Paramount+.

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This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett pick, odds, time: UFC 324