College football games aren’t played on paper and through analytics, but those type of metrics are forecasting another rough year for Michigan State in 2025.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his post-spring SP+ rankings on Thursday, and let’s just say the rankings weren’t kind for the Spartans. For those unaware of SP+, it is essentially a computer-driven metrics system that produces ratings and predictive measures for next season. Included below is the official Google AI description of SP+:
“A widely used advanced analytics system created by Bill Connelly. It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, often used to predict team performance and identify strengths and weaknesses. SP+ is presented as an adjusted points per game figure, making it easy to compare teams and understand their relative strength.”
I took a look at the initial SP+ rankings this morning and have pulled out the notable results and high-level findings specific to Michigan State. Check out my those key points related to the Spartans below:
Spartans ranked low nationally, near basement of Big Ten
Michigan State was ranked as one of the worst power four teams in the SP+ rankings and near the bottom of the Big Ten. Overall, the Spartans came in at No. 64 nationally — which was No. 59 out of 68 power four teams (plus Notre Dame) and No. 15 in the Big Ten. The Spartans were only ranked ahead of Purdue (No. 101 — last of all power four teams), Northwestern (No. 87) and Maryland (No. 70).
What led to the Spartans’ terribly low ranking was a poor rating offensively. The SP+ system ranked Michigan State’s offense as No. 107 nationally. The Spartans’ defense and special teams ranked relatively high at No. 32 nationally for both. Ironically, I personally am excited about the Spartans’ offense and anticipate that side of the ball to be much improved this year, while I have some concerns about the Michigan State front seven on defense this fall.
Michigan State projected to miss bowl game (again)
Along with the team rankings and ratings, SP+ projects the number of wins each team will have this season. The post-spring projection from SP+ is not ideal for Michigan State, as the Spartans are pegged at 4.7 wins. So that would round up to the same record as last year at 5-7 and missing out on the bowl season for a fourth straight year.
Metrics suggest hard schedule for Spartans in 2025
Playing in the Big Ten always means a pretty tough schedule for the Spartans, and that should again be the case this year. According to SP+, Michigan State has the No. 26 toughest schedule in the country this season.
From my point of view, I can understand the relatively high strength of schedule ranking. But I also look at the schedule consider there to be a bunch of toss-up games for Michigan State. In previous years, the schedule was top heavy but that isn’t the case this year for the Spartans as they’ll only face three teams ranked in the SP+ top 25: Penn State (No. 3), Michigan (No. 10) and Indiana (No. 23).
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
#takeaways #Spartans #postspring #rankings