In a surprising offseason move, Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian took a shot at Texas Tech on May 21 in the wake of the Red Raiders’ College Football Playoff run. Commenting on the importance of the strength of a team’s schedule, Sarkisian made a pointed remark seemingly targeted at his former Big 12 foe.
“There’s a team in our state that plays in another conference that has a schedule that I would argue if I played with our 2s and our 3s, we could go undefeated, and they’ll probably make the CFP [College Football Playoff] this year.”
Renowned Texas Tech donor Cody Campbell responded, requesting that Texas schedule a non-conference game. The Longhorns’ schedule is booked through 2029, but how have the programs’ schedules compared?
How Does Texas Tech’s Schedule Compare to Texas’s?
The Red Raiders won their first Big 12 title with a dominant 11–1 regular-season record in 2025. They lost in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but it looked like the program was budding as it took advantage of the opportunity afforded by the NIL era.
However, the Big 12 did not receive much credit throughout the season. While certainly a competitive league with teams like BYU and Utah, many disregarded the conference, and Texas Tech’s Round 2 shutout loss to Oregon did not help.
Among the detractors, apparently, sits Sarkisian. He indicated that he was unimpressed with the Big 12 and claimed Texas would go undefeated with its backups — a bold claim, at the very least.
According to some metrics, the Red Raiders’ schedule was not as robust as the Longhorns’. Texas was ninth in strength of schedule, while Texas Tech was 46th, the lowest of any power-conference team in the CFP last season. Bill Connelly of ESPN ranked Texas’s schedule 13th and Texas Tech’s 45th.
This can be partly attributed to the Red Raiders’ conference. The Big 12 is arguably less talented than it was a few seasons ago, when it lost Texas and Texas Tech. However, there are still plenty of potent teams.
Additionally, the Red Raiders’ non-conference schedule may play a major factor in strength-of-schedule discrepancies. Arkansas–Pine Bluff finished 4–8 and near the bottom of the SWAC, while Kent State and Oregon State finished 130th and 126th, respectively, in Connelly’s SP+ rating — a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”
Comparing Texas Tech and Texas’s regular-season schedules from 2025 using this metric, the difference is apparent.
|
Game No. |
Texas Opponent |
SP+ Rank |
Texas Tech Opponent |
SP+ Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Ohio State |
No. 2 |
Arkansas–Pine Bluff |
N/A |
|
2 |
San Jose State |
No. 118 |
Kent State |
No. 130 |
|
3 |
UTEP |
No. 129 |
Oregon State |
No. 126 |
|
4 |
Sam Houston State |
No. 135 |
Utah |
No. 8 |
|
5 |
Florida |
No. 63 |
Houston |
No. 40 |
|
6 |
Oklahoma |
No. 14 |
Kansas |
No. 59 |
|
7 |
Kentucky |
No. 67 |
Arizona State |
No. 60 |
|
8 |
Mississippi State |
No. 58 |
Oklahoma State |
No. 121 |
|
9 |
Vanderbilt |
No. 11 |
Kansas State |
No. 42 |
|
10 |
Georgia |
No. 6 |
BYU |
No. 18 |
|
11 |
Arkansas |
No. 54 |
UCF |
No. 76 |
|
12 |
Texas A&M |
No. 10 |
West Virginia |
No. 93 |
The Red Raiders’ average non-conference opponent had an SP+ ranking well into the triple digits. While Texas had several easy games early in the season, a test against Ohio State exceeded anything on Texas Tech’s regular-season schedule.
In conference play, Texas had an average opponent ranking of 35.375 (average SP+ rating: 12.24). Texas Tech’s average conference opponent ranking was 57.4 (average SP+ rating: 4.16)
Things don’t project to be much different in 2026, either. According to Connelly, the Big 12 has an average projected SP+ rating of 7.4, nearly half of the SEC’s 14.5. This is roughly the difference between a top-40 team and a top-20 team, respectively, according to last season’s ratings
Looking ahead to 2026, not much changes, though Texas and the SEC are moving toward a nine-game conference schedule, potentially making the Longhorns’ schedule more difficult.
Why Steve Sarkisian’s Comments Fell on Deaf Ears
Whether or not the comments on Texas Tech’s schedule are fair or not comes second. The latter half of Sarkisian’s comments immediately dilutes his point for one reason: it has not been that long since Texas was in the Big 12.
“I would argue if I played with our 2s and our 3s, we could go undefeated.”
Steve Sarkisian
This comment would hold more weight if Texas had been more successful in the Big 12 during his tenure.
While the Longhorns won the conference in 2023, a parting gift before exiting for the SEC, it was the team’s first conference title in a decade and a half. Sarkisian also went .500 in his first two seasons in the Big 12 before recording an 8–1 record in Year 3.
Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire is on a similar trajectory, going 8–1 in Year 4, though he has never had a losing conference record with the Red Raiders. Meanwhile, Sarkisian was 3–6 in his first season with Texas.
Additionally, Texas narrowly escaped defeat in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 1, 2025, against Arizona State, the Big 12 champions, during the College Football Playoff. Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo took Texas to double overtime, with the Longhorns winning in the end.
A target has been placed on Texas Tech, seemingly an ascending program. They have become a strong candidate in the NIL era, and while that has drawn jeers from other fanbases, Texas is not the right program to point fingers. The Longhorns are often among the most expensive rosters in college football.
Texas would likely be the odds-on favorite to win the Big 12 if it switched conferences for a season, but it does not matter. Sarkisian is either punching down, according to his established hierarchy, or at a ghost from his past, neither of which is a particularly great look as he aims for an SEC title and a return to the College Football Playoff.
The Longhorns have done well since their switch to the SEC. It offered them more revenue opportunities and stronger competition during conference play. Texas is 23–6 with a 13–3 conference record and a CFP appearance.
Regardless, fans remember that the Longhorns struggled in the Big 12 during the Charlie Strong and Tom Herman eras. Texas only finished two games over .500 in conference play twice in seven seasons. While things are better now, Texas may not have earned the right to dismiss the conference it was in just a few seasons ago.
The Longhorns should have their feet pointed forward. Better things are ahead, and looking back could only do more harm than good.
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