Why Iowa Football Can — and Can’t — Be a Dark Horse

It’s going to happen one year or another. It really does feel like a matter of time before things break the right way for an entire season.

That thing is the Iowa Hawkeyes’ first (and a bit overdue) trip to the College Football Playoff.

Last year saw Iowa come within five points of realistically making the 12-team field. That is all that separated them from knocking off Indiana and Oregon.

The Formula for an Iowa Playoff Run Is There

After being on the wrong side of the bounce last season, could the Hawkeyes, who are viewed as a Big Ten sleeper, see 2026 as the year they break through?

For the sake of argument, let’s talk about what Iowa can control, rather than try to guess about the schedule. Would you have believed Indiana three years ago? That’s why it’s best to focus on the controllables.

Why Iowa can make the College Football Playoff

I like to think football has a funny way of paying teams back for misfortune and heartbreak. Last year was brutal for the Hawkeyes with the way they lost to Indiana and Oregon. They legitimately had both teams on the ropes late in the fourth quarter.

First things first, this team’s floor based on the defensive discipline is higher than many others. Iowa is going to find itself in games late due to its defense shutting down drives, forcing turnovers, and even scoring itself.

Another reason is this team’s running game. I don’t know if Iowa has had a backfield with as much talent as the running back group has this year in quite some time.

It isn’t unrealistic to think this team could run for 2,500 yards or more this year. They hit 2,300 yards on the nose last season and figure to pound the rock even more with a new quarterback.

If Iowa can get the run game going, it could run its way right into the 12-team playoff, which would present a brutal draw for any team.

A disciplined, physical Iowa team that runs and plays defense well on a cold late-December day? No, thanks.

Why Iowa can’t make the College Football Playoff

The quarterback play.

It’s been Iowa’s kryptonite throughout the 2020s, and, until Jeremy Hecklinski or Hank Brown can prove it this year, teams are going to load the box, play man coverage, and force them to win the game.

If they can’t, we are looking at Iowa from 2021 to 2023, where teams know what’s coming and Iowa is stuck in the mud, drive after drive.

A less likely culprit, but not impossible, is a severe defensive regression. Iowa feels a bit regression-proof with Phil Parker to the point that the floor feels like being an above-average unit.

But, if that floor sinks even a bit with a stagnant offense, Iowa goes from a dark horse College Football Playoff contender to having to simply fight for its bowl life.